Ambassador M. Alam Brohi

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence”, John Adams.

Last week, after meeting President Asif Ali Zardari in Bilawal House, Federal Minister Muhsin Naqvi made a statement in an economic Summit in Karachi that the current system had completely collapsed and needed to be overhauled forthwith. He added that even if the country produced a Prime Minister committed to work for 18 hours a day, the system would not deliver unless more administrative units were carved out. However, he did not outline the factors leading to the collapse of the system nor did he elaborate who was responsible for the political and economic crises, the country has suffered repeatedly since its inception.

Probably, he did not think it necessary to enter into polemics at this stage. He wanted us to understand and endorse his suggestion for the reform of the system. If so, how can we reform the system if we do not identify those responsible for this tragic national failure, and how do we endorse a new system when its outlines have not been revealed to us? We should not deceive ourselves about the apparently innocent and straight forward motives of his statement. It actually represents something deeper – reflective of a new scheme governance. The establishment is surely behind his audacious move to lock horns with the politically influential ruling coalition, and the mainstream political parties.

Nevertheless, Mr. Naqvi has stirred the hornet’s nest. The Sharif family was livid about it. Rather, it felt the hardness of the slap. The dynasty had back to back huddles at Jati Umra. Their unconditional collaboration with the security establishment has pushed their political standing to the lowest ebb. TThe Zardari dynasty is also upset. Their Pakistan People’s Party has demanded the immediate resignation of Minister Muhsin Naqvi whom President Asif Zardari has repeatedly patted on back calling him his boy. Obviously, the PPP could not have moved against him without the consent of President Asif Zardari or its Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.

Similarly, the other mainstream political parties including Jamiat ulema e Islam (JUI) of Moulana Fazal Ur Rahman, and Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf or the opposition alliance have also opposed his suggestion. Rather, the JUI has been criticizing the establishment as the perpetrators of the challenging situations in Balochistan, KPK, GB, and AJK, and the repeated failure of the governance system in the country.

Minister Naqvi’s statement apart, speculations about dividing the country into more provinces through 28th amendment in the Constitution have been swirling around since the enactment of the earlier 26th and 27th amendments, which were aimed at achieving specific results. As a consequence, the judiciary lost its status as the third state organ as recognized by the Constitution, and certain state employees achieved life immunity from prosecution. Nothing for the country or the common man.

There is a silent but visible consensus that the country should not be subjected to an experiment like that of One-Unit which, in the final analysis, was a very bad political and administrative decision with ugly consequences. It sowed the seeds of the secession of East Pakistan as it not only disregarded the majority of the Bengalis, but also created an artificial province of West Pakistan as a countervailing force to deprive them of their majority share in political power, and the divisible pool of financial resources, and federal superior positions of the country.

This was mindlessly done by amalgamating the existing historic, and culturally and linguistically compact three provinces into Punjab and calling it West Pakistan with Lahore as its capital.   This deprived Sindhis, Baloch and Pakhtun of their historic geographical, cultural and linguistic identities, and the right of self-rule as per Pakistan Resolution of 1940. These smaller provinces had to struggle hard for a decade and half to wriggle out of the political and economic dictatorship of Lahore.

There is also a consensus that the country, economically weak, and politically fragmented as it is, cannot afford to go through a new and unnecessary exercise of political disputes and tensions; controversial division of economic and financial resource and fresh apportionment of the irrigation waters; the demarcation of new boundaries, districts and divisions and constituencies of the new administrative units; allocation and transfer of bureaucracy; appointment of Governors, Ministers,  and setting up of Provincial Secretariats,  Legislative Assemblies, spending huge amounts on contingencies, rents and royalties, pays and pensions, allowances and privileges particularly when we are facing bad security situations in Balochistan, KPP, and tenacious political unrest in the AJK.

The ruling clique is mistaken to consider the existing federal units as administrative units. These lands historically existed as separate nations before the advent of the British Raj. They voluntarily supported the movement for Pakistan. The Quaid did not have a kinetic forces to compel Sindh to pass a resolution in March 1943, and Punjab in June 1946 to join Pakistan.

The country has administratively devolved from the capital to the tehsil level. The country has witnessed tremendous administrative changes since inception. Sindh has grown from one division in 1947 into the existing seven; Punjab from three into ten; KPK from two into seven and Balochistan from two into eleven divisions. The number of divisions has grown from 8 to 35, and of districts from 40 to 150 in all the four provinces since the creation of Pakistan. These are administrative units.

Will we outsource the new administrative units to angels from the heaven to perform wonders? We have the same politicians, the same bureaucracy, the same federal institutions, the same law enforcing agencies, with their strengths, weaknesses, prejudices and foibles to run the new administrative units. We can well imagine how the new administrative units will be run. Do we expect wonders from these reforms? The new bottle will not change the acerbic taste of the wine.

The Federations are strengthened by the volunteer support and endorsement of federating units under a constitutional framework – free from any exploitation, coercion, and political and economic gerrymandering, and firmly anchored in plural, representative, participatory, inclusive, and democratic governance; rule of law, equality before law, social and economic and financial justice, and meritocracy.

The example of India has been repeatedly cited to justify the creation of new provinces. We should not mix up Federation and a Union of States. A Union of States is created by the Central authority by administrative acts for political and administrative convenience, while federations rest on the voluntary and constitutional endorsement of historically recognized national lands.  India has not divided Uttar Pradesh with a population of over 220million. The province of Behar, with a population of over 130 million, carries on as one province without any problem.

Keeping in view the sensitivities of the federal units about their historic status as national lands, the 1973 Constitution, adopted by almost a consensus vote, has recognized the four provinces, and laid down a tough process for the division of a province or creating a new province. The process needs the endorsement of the concerned provincial Assembly by two-third majority, and a two-third majority in the Parliament.

Read: The Imperiled National Security

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Based in Karachi, the author is a former member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and has served as Ambassador for seven years

First published in The Friday Times Lahore

The post Stirring The Hornet’s Nest first appeared on Sindh Courier.

Dr. Shahban Sahito

The role of the establishment in Pakistani politics, though previously concealed, has become more publicly recognized due to controlled media. The establishment has been a constant presence in Pakistan’s political history, often deemed unconstitutional and met with public resistance. In the past, political parties avoided direct association with the establishment, but if their governments were overthrown, they would openly criticize the establishment’s role.

Nawaz Sharif, who had been in self-imposed exile for four years, has returned to Pakistan. He was disqualified by the Supreme Court on corruption charges in 2017, and Imran Khan played a pivotal role in undermining his government. Imran Khan later won the 2018 elections with establishment support.

During Imran Khan’s government, Nawaz Sharif’s party faced challenges. Imran Khan’s government enjoyed the support of General Bajwa and DG ISI General Faiz Hameed. Eventually, Nawaz Sharif left for exile on the pretext of a medical emergency, and this move was seen as a quid pro quo for granting an extension to General Bajwa in 2022. The establishment subsequently eased its stance on Nawaz League party leaders due to their leader’s compromise with the establishment.

Pakistan’s political history shows that certain political parties and classes serve as reserved forces for the establishment.

In a surprising turn of events, Shahbaz Sharif, Nawaz Sharif’s brother, maintained a reconciliatory approach with the establishment and succeeded in removing Imran Khan’s government through a vote of no-confidence on April 10, 2022. After a vote of no-confidence against Imran Khan, Shahbaz Sharif became the new Prime Minister under the PDM alliance government. This was made possible with the covert support of the establishment. In 17 months, Shahbaz Sharif’s government managed to win the confidence and rebuild trust with the establishment in favor of his brother, Nawaz Sharif.

Nawaz Sharif has returned to Pakistan as part of a deal. He challenged the establishment in the past, questioning why he was ousted. Interestingly, Imran Khan has adopted a similar narrative against the establishment. Nawaz Sharif’s exile was seen as an attempt to negotiate terms and conditions without interference from Imran Khan. While Nawaz League leadership, under Shahbaz Sharif, continued to engage with the establishment to reach a broader agreement before Nawaz’s return. Imran Khan was essentially a temporary establishment force to settle disputes and strained relations between military leaders and Nawaz Sharif’s party.

There are also civilian elites who work as paid employees of the establishment and have infiltrated various judicial, bureaucratic, economic, and political institutions

In the context of Pakistan’s political landscape, particularly in Punjab province, Nawaz Sharif’s party plays a pivotal role. It boasts significant representation of the Punjabi civil corporate elite. In the province, no other political party can claim to have as many civilian corporate elites. Other political parties in the province are seen as traditional and are often considered part of the establishment bloc. They conduct their corporate and commercial activities under establishment patronage or with the support of business and corporate elites, such as Tareen and Aleem Khan.

There are also civilian elites who work as paid employees of the establishment. These so-called civilian elites have infiltrated various judicial, bureaucratic, economic, and political institutions. They have consistently remained loyal and played a role in support of the establishment. Pakistani politics has witnessed civilian parties attempting to assert themselves in power and reduce the influence of the establishment as the decisive political force.

Nawaz Sharif’s return is part of an agreement and the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO). He is expected to require the support of the agencies in the 2024 elections. This prediction is shared by political analysts, and even Bilawal Bhutto, the chairman of PPP, whose father is closely aligned with the establishment, expressed dissatisfaction with the deal and special treatment offered to Nawaz Sharif upon his return. Nawaz Sharif is back with the assurance of establishment support in the 2024 election, and his legal cases have been handled with leniency.

Also read: With Nawaz Sharif’s return, politics comes full circle in Pakistan

The central question is why Nawaz Sharif remains relevant in Pakistani politics. Despite Imran Khan and the PTI’s efforts to cooperate with the establishment, they did not become the establishment’s ideal choice. This could be attributed to the fact that Nawaz’s party has strong roots in Punjab and enjoys support from civilian corporate elites. Other parties are often seen as extensions of the establishment and its patronage. Continuously supporting these puppet parties and politicians is viewed as risky because it can lead to conflicts of interest between civilian and military corporate interests, which would not be in the best interest of the province.

Pakistan’s political history shows that certain political parties and classes serve as reserved forces for the establishment. When the establishment needs them to protect its institutional interests, they are brought into active politics, but often not for extended periods. This phenomenon applies to the PTI and Imran Khan.

The history of Pakistan also reveals that political leaders facing corruption charges have had their cases dropped and qualifications restored to allow them to participate in elections. This has been observed in the cases of Zardari and Nawaz, who benefited from the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) in 2008, enabling them to contest elections.

It would not be surprising tomorrow Imran Khan strikes a deal with the establishment; if Nawaz Sharif fail to meet their expectations. Imran Khan’s party, PTI, still maintains some popularity in Punjab, which suggests that it could serve as a lever for the establishment.

Nawaz Sharif’s popularity has waned, especially among the middle class in Punjab, due to his dynastic ruling style and the concentration of influential positions within the Sharif family. This has led to internal dissent within the party, with some members disapproving of the family’s control over key positions of the government.

Nawaz Sharif’s return is part of a grand strategy, which extends beyond his individual strength or weakness. It is a calculated move considering Pakistan’s political challenges, both domestic and international, that require careful navigation. The deal struck between Nawaz Sharif and the establishment is influenced by these larger factors.

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Dr. Shahban Sahito is Assistant Professor at Department of International Relations, University of Sindh, Jamshoro. Email: shahban.sahito@usindh.edu.pk

The post Changing Dynamics in Pakistani Politics first appeared on Sindh Courier.