The region will remain in the waiting room, watching the smoke without ever seeing the great fire, because the fire would mean everyone burns. The question remains: How long will the world remain a hostage to this waiting?

By Abdel Latif Moubarak | Egypt  

For over four decades, the world has stood on its tiptoes, holding its breath with every warship moving through the Gulf and every fiery statement issued from the White House or “Nahjistan.” The title is not merely a literary metaphor; it is a diagnosis of a chronic geopolitical condition. Everyone awaits the “Big Bang” or the “Historic Peace,” but the truth is that we are living in a liminal space between them. We are waiting for what never comes because the rules of the game between the two parties were not designed for a decisive conclusion, but for mutual attrition and brinkmanship.

Tehran adopts the philosophy of the “Persian Carpet”—meticulous, slow, and long-term weaving. In contrast, American policy suffers from “attention deficit” with every election cycle.

Iran: Does not seek a direct confrontation that would destroy its gains; it prefers “proxy wars.”

America: Realizes that the cost of invading Iran would make the Iraq War look like a “picnic,” and thus settles for the stranglehold of sanctions.

The deadlock of this “war” cannot be understood without looking at the map. Iran is not just a state; it is a natural fortress surrounded by mountains.

1. The Strait of Hormuz: The dagger that Tehran holds to the throat of the global economy.
2. Regional Influence: From Baghdad to Beirut, and Damascus to Sana’a—these are leverage cards ensuring that any attack on the Iranian interior means the entire region goes up in flames.

While politics speaks of principles, reality speaks of oil and gas. American sanctions have transformed the Iranian economy into a “resistance economy,” but they have simultaneously created smuggling networks and parallel trade. This has rendered economic pressure an indecisive tool, and even a catalyst for military circumvention and innovation.

Does Iran want the bomb, or does it want the “nuclear threshold”?

Waiting is the master of the situation here. Obtaining the weapon means inviting an international strike, while not obtaining it means remaining at the mercy of threats. Therefore, the nuclear file remains an eternal bargaining chip—a tool for political blackmail rather than an imminent military goal.

Both parties have developed a secret “code” for engagement:

“Strike my ‘tools’ (proxies) and I will strike your ‘allies’.”

“Do not target my senior leaders (except in exceptional cases like Qasem Soleimani) so that I am not forced to respond directly.”

These rules are what prevent “what never comes” from arriving, maintaining the balance of terror.

America is no longer the unified “world policeman.” There is an “isolationist” current that rejects eternal wars and a “hawkish” current that views Iran as an evil that must be eradicated. This fluctuation has allowed Tehran to play on Washington’s internal contradictions, waiting for one administration to depart and another to arrive.

Betting on the collapse of the regime from within due to external pressure is also a wager on “waiting for what never comes.” The Iranian regime has proven a superior ability to contain internal crises by exporting them abroad, using the “American enemy” as a peg to legitimize domestic repression.

The confrontation is no longer bilateral. China and Russia have found in Iran an ally to “spite” the West.

China: Provides an economic lifeline by purchasing oil.

Russia: Provides political cover and military-technical support.

This triangle has made isolating Iran nearly impossible in the new world order.

In the end, it seems that a comprehensive war between America and Iran is the “Godot” of the modern era; everyone talks about it, everyone prepares for it, but it never arrives. Both parties realize that the price of war is the end of the current status quo —a status quo which, despite its bitterness, provides both with a reason for existence and continuity.

The region will remain in the waiting room, watching the smoke without ever seeing the great fire, because the fire would mean everyone burns. The question remains: How long will the world remain a hostage to this waiting?

Read: The Little Mirror of Secrets

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The author was born in Suez and writes poetry using classical Arabic and Egyptian vernacular. He received a Bachelor of Law from Ain Shams University. He was one of the most important poets of the 1980s and his poems were published in several literary magazines in Egypt and the Arab world, including the Arab magazine, Kuwait magazine, News Literature, Republic newspaper, Al-Ahram, the new publishing culture (magazine).[1] Received the Excellence and Creativity Shield from the Arab Media Union in 2014 and Won the shield of excellence and creativity from the East Academy 2021.He won the Sergio Camellini International Award in Italy in 2025. He won first place in the “Divinamente Donna” competition in Italy 2026.

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