There is a growing belief that a number of delegates will take the unprecedented step of abstaining or even voting against the “revered father figure” in protest against his handling of the pandemic.
By Tom Arms
“We do things better than the West,” is the oft-chanted mantra of the Chinese leadership.
And since Covid emerged from Wuhan the authorities have proudly pointed to their handling of the pandemic as proof of the superiority of the Chinese system as infections and deaths soared in Europe and America while China’s Zero Covid Policy seemed to be keeping a lid on the virus.
That is changing, and the change is threatening President Xi Jinping’s hold on power.
Xi’s problem is that his Zero Covid Policy is making Chinese people think that his cure is worse than the disease.
The policy involves complete lockdown to prevent the spread of infection. In Shanghai recently that meant that China’s commercial hub and the world’s busiest port was shut down. All 27 million residents were barred from leaving their homes except for medical emergencies.
Babies were separated from their parents. People could not go to the shops to buy food and officials locked people inside their homes. Food and medical supplies were rationed. They were meant to be delivered but too often never appeared.
Shanghai is China’s wealthiest and most cosmopolitan city. Its citizens are used to the trappings of Chinese economic success and enjoy a relatively free lifestyle. They objected to the lockdown and the policy behind it.
The Communist Party censored the objections but tech-savvy residents managed to circumvent the Great Firewall of China to post videos on Western social media of people banging pots and pans in protest and displaying banners which read: “I want my freedom back.”
Shanghai is beginning to return to normal, but Beijing and its 22 million inhabitants is heading for the zero policy lockdown. So far this year 373 million Chinese have suffered severe lockdown measures.
The impact on the economy is shocking. The government had forecast growth of 5.5 percent. Independent experts, however, believe that it will be lucky if the economy grows two percent. It is estimated that the pandemic has cost China more than $2.7 trillion.
The Chinese people appear willing to sacrifice some of their personal liberties in exchange for wealth and enough freedom to enjoy it. Xi jinping’s Zero Covid Policy is denying them both.
If Xi was a directly-elected President he would almost certainly be rejected by the voters at the next poll. But he is not. China is a one-party state. Its leader emerges from the ranks of the Communist Party through a series of back room deals involving the senior levels of the party.
When Deng Xiaopeng came to power in 1982 he introduced a limit of two five year terms for the Chinese presidency. In 2018 68-year-old Xi persuaded the Communist Party to lift those limits—paving the way for him to serve a third, fourth and possibly even fifth term.
The main reason for the limitation on the presidential term was to prevent the rise of another Mao-like cult which, according to Deng, led to dictatorial excesses that hampered economic growth and fostered political oppression. The official line for abolishing the term limits is that the period up to 2035 is thought to be crucial to China’s development and thus the distraction of a leadership change should be avoided.
Xi, however, is using the power inherent in unlimited terms by establishing the cult that Deng considered so damaging. Not only has he abolished term limits, but he has concentrated more power in his hands; eliminated potential rivals and is now officially referred as “Lingxiu” or revered father figure. This term was last used by Mao.
In November the 2,980 delegates of the National People’s Congress are due to hold their once every five years session in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The NPC is parliament that nods through legislation and proposals already agreed by the Communist Party and the congress’s party-controlled Standing Committee.
The proposal to abolish presidential term limits is due to be formally approved during the two-week session. It used to be that all NPC votes were unanimous. For window-dressing purposes that was changed to a majority. But any proposal that receives less than 70 percent support is unofficially in trouble.
Given Xi’s stranglehold on the party machine means that he will almost certainly be officially confirmed in a third term. But there is a growing belief that a number of delegates will take the unprecedented step of abstaining or even voting against the “revered father figure” in protest against his handling of the pandemic. If that happens then Xi’s authority would be seriously undermined and the race is on for a successor figure.
World Review
- Sweden and Finland want to join NATO. Vladimir Putin has reversed himself and reluctantly said that membership of the Alliance by the two Nordic countries posed “no threat”. A seamless Swedish-Finnish application seemed certain. Wait, the diplomats forgot about the perennial thorn in NATO’s Southern flank—Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. An application to join NATO requires the approval of all 30 members and President Erdogan has threatened a Turkish block. His reason? He is angry because Sweden and Norway give asylum to members of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) which he is trying to wipe out. Sweden and Finland also imposed sanctions against Turkey when Erdogan ordered his troops into Northern Syria in 2016 (they are still there). At the top of the list of criteria for NATO membership, is, according to the US State Department, a commitment “to uphold democracy, including tolerance for diversity.” On that basis, Erdogan’s Turkey would fail membership requirements. Since the attempted 2016 coup, Erdogan has jailed nearly 80,000 judges, military officers, civil servants, police, teachers and journalists. 130 media organizations have been closed. Homosexuality is banned and Erdogan has announced plans to reinstate the death penalty. There is, of course, no question of booting Turkey out of the Alliance. It is the strategic bridge between Europe and Asia and at the moment prevents Russian ships from sailing through the Dardanelles to join the war in Ukraine. Realpolitik trumps human rights. But should Erdogan be allowed to prevent solidly democratic countries from joining NATO? The British government have indicated a possible workaround if Erdogan refuses to change his mind. It has signed a separate “mutual assistance” treaty with Norway and Sweden. If other NATO countries followed suit then the Turkish veto would be irrelevant.
- The shooting in a Buffalo supermarket which left ten African-Americans dead is not an isolated incident. According to a report by the respected Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 67 percent of the domestic terror incidents recorded in 2020 were organized by far-right and white supremacist groups. Many of those who stormed Capitol Hill were White supremacists. FBI Director Christopher Wray described White Supremacy as a “significant and pervasive threat” to the US. President Biden called it a “poison running through the body politic.” But why are these people turning to violence in a democratic country? The answer is simple: America’s demographics are changing which means non-Whites comprise a bigger slice of the voter pie. Between 2010 and 2020 the proportion of White Americans dropped from 63.7 percent to 57.8 percent and by 2050 they are expected to be in the minority—although still far and away the largest ethnic group. The government, argue the White supremacists, are either actively encouraging this shift or ignoring it. Payton Gendron, who is allegedly responsible for the Buffalo shooting, wrote in a 180-page manifesto that the government is intentionally replacing White people with minorities through immigration. This is known as the “Replacement Conspiracy” and its being actively circulated by White Supremacist groups. Several supremacist organizations have called for the overthrow of the US government and the creation of a White “ethno-state” carved out the Pacific Northwest and populated only by Whites. The Buffalo shooting, the warped thinking behind it, demographic changes and the dreams of an ethno-states underscore that race will be a difficult and defining issue in American politics for years to come.
- Coronavirus has finally reached the hermit kingdom of North Korea—with a vengeance. The latest reports are that over 1.5 million of the country’s 26 million inhabitants are infected with the highly-infectious Omicron variant of covid. The regime is totally unprepared. None of the population have been vaccinated (except perhaps the leadership). There is no testing and tracing equipment. There is very little personal protection equipment for medical staff and an acute shortage of beds. North Korea’s health service has been described as a disgrace before the pandemic reached it and nothing has been done to prepare for it. South Korea has offered no strings attached medical help, equipment and vaccines, but so far North Korea’s Kim Jongun has refused all offers of assistance. In the meantime he continues the rapid development of the country’s nuclear weapons program. American intelligence believe that Kim is planning another intercontinental ballistic missile test to coincide with President Biden’s visit to South Korea this coming weekend. But both Washington and Seoul are adamant that any such test will not deter them from offering humanitarian aid to deal with the covid crisis.
- Mariupol has fallen. 1,700 Ukrainian fighters have emerged from the bowels of the besieged Azovstal Steelworks to be taken prisoner. Russia now has military control of an unbroken swathe of Ukrainian territory stretching from Crimea to northeastern Ukraine. It is well-placed to attack Odessa and cut Ukraine off from the sea. Vladimir Putin has declared a battle victory. But should he? Against all the odds the defenders of Mariupol held up tens of thousands of Russian troops for 85 days and cost the Russians billions of rubles in artillery bombardments and air strikes. Those 85 days have been used by the West to rush supplies to Ukraine and Zelensky’s forces used the time to train and equip more soldiers and prepare defensive lines. The result is that elsewhere in Eastern Ukraine the Russian advance has almost ground to a halt. The Russians have failed to establish a vital river crossing and their attempt to do so cost an estimated 500 men, 30 tanks and a pontoon bridge. A retired Army Colonel, Mikhail Khodaryonok, has risked Putin’s wrath this week by going on government-controlled Russian state television to say that Russia is fighting an unwinnable war. The Russian president is said to be disgusted with his generals and taken over tactical command from his Moscow headquarters. Hitler made the same move after the D-Day landings with predictable consequences.
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Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democratic Voice and the author of the recently published book “America Made in Britain.”
(The author has expressed his personal views, which do not reflect the editorial policy of Sindh Courier)
