We indeed seem to be living in interesting times here in Pakistan
By Foqia Sadiq Khan
There is a famous Chinese curse: “May you live in interesting times”. We indeed seem to be living in interesting times here in Pakistan.
On the top of the list is the Parliament-Judiciary tussle. Our Parliament that has been largely rendered toothless and irrelevant since 2016-17 is fighting for its lost place in the national scheme of things. It might be fighting one of the toughest battles for its survival. The superior judiciary’s “innovative” self-serving attack on the Parliament’s right to make laws and set the rules of the game is daunting to say the least.
What many may not realize too well is that this PDM versus the judiciary tussle may actually work well for the former in ways not considered much in the public discourse so far. Imagine if things deteriorate further between the government and the Supreme Court and the Chief Justice and his “chosen” judges send the Shahbaz Sharif led coalition government home. It might actually work wonders for the PDM’s popularity and narrative building.
When Nawaz Sharif was removed in sham Supreme Court proceedings in July 2017; PML-N became instantly popular and NS’s “vote ko izzat do” became a household slogan overnight. When Imran Khan’s government was voted out through no confidence in April 2022 last year and he spun together a cipher conspiracy around it; Imran Khan touched new heights of popularity in public imagination. Due to the very tough global and domestic economic conditions; Pakistan’s economy has been struggling since the PDM government took over and inflation/price-hike is at an all-time high. Sacking of the Prime Minister at this hour might be all that the PDM government needs to bounce back its lost popularity and it might do wonders for its upcoming general election prospects. Therefore, the Chief Justice and his “chosen” judges might want to pause a bit and think through before they squeeze the sitting government and the Parliament a bit more. Even as it is, the current government-judiciary tussle is making the government popular with every passing day as it is taking a stand against the tyrannical “judicial imperialism”.
The superior judiciary’s “innovative” self-serving attack on the Parliament’s right to make laws and set the rules of the game is daunting to say the least
The second important recent issue is of social protection/subsidy provided to the poor in these very challenging times. We have read the heart wrenching reports of people getting killed via trying to access the free aata being distributed by the government during Ramzan. Due to extremely tough IMF conditions; the space for the government to provide relief to people is almost non-existent. That is why the government is trying to come up with a rather ill-conceived plan of cross-subsidizing the poor by charging the rich more for petrol. The question is why does the government not stick to tried-and-tested methods of social protection like BISP and Ehsaas program rather than coming up with these open-ended schemes?
BISP targets over 5 million of the poorest households in Pakistan. Ehsaas program cumulatively has given relief to approximately 10 million deserving families. In a country of over 220 million people with the majority being the poor and belonging to low-income groups; this does not enjoy the economies of scale. The current 30-40% inflation has not only hit the poorest of the poor and the poor but also the low-income and even middle-income groups in the country. That is why the government is trying to target a relatively larger chunk of the deserving population for social protection than those covered under BISP or Ehsaas Program. However, it needs to better design its impromptu social protection to avoid those extremely unfortunate deaths of the poor who were only trying to receive free aata for their families. The upcoming petrol cross-subsidy does not seem too well-planned either. The government needs to carefully think through social protection while providing relief, keeping economies of scale in mind. It may be able to notch up the infrastructure of BISP/Ehsaas to scale up and not make botch attempts just to appear different from the previous social protection efforts.
PML-N did the right thing by not changing the BISP name and brand while providing social protection from 2013 to 2018. PTI was not magnanimous enough and it tried to have its own seal of Ehsaas program rather than sticking with BISP only. Now the present PDM government is trying to come up with ways to provide relief to the poor and low-income groups both for “optics” and political expediency reasons as well the genuine urge to do the needful. Better planning is much needed to execute such efforts.
On the government-judiciary tussle, we are indeed living in interesting times. Let’s see how more interesting it gets!
An Asian Development Bank’s report on social protection identifies social assistance and welfare service, social insurance and labor market amongst some of the important avenues to consider. Social assistance includes welfare and social services, cash or in-kind transfers, temporary subsidies, and safeguards. Cash or in-kind transfers include food stamps and family allowance to the deserving population. Temporary subsidies include support including, “energy life-line tariffs, housing subsidies, or support of lower prices of staple food in times of crisis”. Labor market intervention includes labor market assessments, active labor market programs, passive labor market policies and safeguards. After all, the best possible scenario would be where the poor and low-income groups can earn fair wages and may not need to depend on cash or in-kind transfer in the first place.
The World Bank in one of its reports on social protection emphasizes “adaptive social protection” and focuses on financing and institutional arrangements to have “adaptive toolboxes” that include: “social safety net schemes, productive and economic inclusion programs, and labor market and social insurance measures”. Data and building information systems is crucial for an institutionalized approach.
To sum it up, it is commendable that the government is trying to provide relief not only to the poor but also to other low-income groups in these difficult times despite having no financial space to do so. Yet, it should try to do so through well-thought out schemes along the principles of established social protection best practices and not carry out a hotchpotch job. On the government-judiciary tussle, we are indeed living in interesting times. Let’s see how more interesting it gets!
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The writer is an Islamabad-based social scientist. Email: fskcolumns@gmail.com Twitter: @FoqiaSadiqKhan
