There is no certain answer as to when or how the Iran war will end. Trump started his war with no clear exit strategy.

By Tom Arms | London 

Iran and the US have been on a collision course since 1979 when the radical Islamic state was founded and 44 US diplomats were taken hostage.

But why now. But also, what are the ‘who’s, what’s, how’s, when’s and where’s’ of the current car crash and its regional, national and global repercussions.

Who first—the US and Israel. America did not call on its traditional NATO allies. It did not go to the United Nations to seek legal sanctions. The United States did not even bother to inform the G7 countries. The United States acted unilaterally. In fact, Donald Trump acted unilaterally within the US government machine because he did not bother to consult members of Congress let alone seek congressional approval.

The only country that America allied itself with was Israel. It should be noted that this was the first time (other than the air attack in June) that US and Israeli troops have fought together. In the first and second Gulf Wars the US refused Israeli help and there was no Israeli participation in Afghanistan.

There was a very good reason for this. Arab governments may be prepared to accept Israel, but most of their populations remain implacably opposed to the existence of the state of the Jewish state. When Israeli and US forces fight side by side it alienates America from Arab public opinion and shakes the thrones of the Arab monarchies. Iran is unpopular with Arabs, but Israel is reprehensible.

The why and when are linked. Iran is the weakest it has been since the Islamic revolutionary government came to power 47 years ago. Years of sanctions have significantly weakened the economy. Economic hardship coupled with political repression has created waves of riots. Only weeks ago Iranian government shot tens of thousands of protesters demanding an end to the theocratic regime. And finally, the Iranian military has been weakened by the Gaza War and Operation Midnight Hammer which damaged—but clearly did not “obliterate” – Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities.

The question of where would appear obvious: The skies over Iran and Lebanon where Iran’s proxy Hezbollah army is based. But not so obvious is the wider Gulf region as well. Iran is responding to attacks on its forces by widening the war to include the entire Middle East. Missiles and drones have been falling Kuwait, Iraq, Turkey, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar and even Azerbaijan. The targets are mainly economic infrastructure because one of Iran’s main war aims is to create economic chaos throughout the region because the security of the west depends on economic stability in the oil-rich Gulf region.

The how is air strikes—for now at least. It started with precision bombing with the aim of taking out the political leadership and Iranian defenses. That appears to have been successful. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini is dead as are several political leadership layers beneath him. Analysts believe the Iranians have used 90 percent of their missile arsenal and their air force and navy are crushed.

The US and Israel now have command of the skies. They no longer need to rely solely on their Stealth bombers with precision targeting. The skies of Iran are now filled with B-52 Stratfortress bombers dropping 2,000-pound bombs. And because they are gravity bombs there is less control of where they land. As America’s gung-ho Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, said: “Our forces will be raining down death and destruction all day long.” He added that they would be following no rules of engagement. No Geneva conventions. No “pussy footing around.”

But what follows Hegseth’s “death and destruction?” When will the war end? The two questions are inextricably linked and so far, the Trump Administration has demonstrably failed to give clear answers to these key questions. Trump would like to see the Iranian people rise up and destroy any remnants of the regime and its revolutionary guard that remain. That may happen, but if it does it will make it more difficult for the American president to achieve his stated aim of choosing the next Iranian leader.

And if the people do rebel the outcome of such a rebellion is highly uncertain. There are ten major ethnic groups in Iran and at least four of them—the Kurds, Balochs, Turkmens and Ahvazi Arabs—have nationalist aspirations. A bombing campaign that destroys Iran’s security apparatus and economic infrastructure could fracture this multi-ethnic country and lead to a civil war.

America might be able to prevent a civil war by sending in troops as it did in Iraq. Hegseth appears to be in favour of boots on the ground. At least, he has refused to rule out that option. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, however, appears to be vehemently against dispatching ground troops. Once you march the boots in, he argues, it is difficult to march them out.

One thing is clear: There is no certain answer as to when or how the Iran war will end. Trump started his war with no clear exit strategy.

World Review

Texas is a bright red, far-right Republican, conservative state. It has not elected a Democrat to the US Senate for 37 years. That may be about to change. And if it does the repercussions will rock the White House.

Primary elections for one of the Lone Star state’s two Senate seats were held by both the Democrat and Republican parties this week. One of the recognized barometers of political success is the size of the voter turnout. The turnout for the Democrat primary was highest in the state’s history.

The winner was Texas State Representative James Talerico. A middle-of-the-road Democrat with a strong Christian background. The latter is important in Bible belt Texas. Talerico won with 52.8 percent. Runner-up Jasmine Crockett (46.9 percent of the vote) conceded gracefully and immediately called on voters to support Talerico.

The Republican primary, in contrast, was a bitter contest, had a low turnout and none of the candidates won the overall majority required to win their party’s nomination. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn won 41.9 percent of the vote and state Attorney General Ken Paxton secured 40.7 percent.

There will be a run-off between the top two candidates on 26 May. Democrats hope that Paxton wins. He is an ultra-conservative MAGA man. He was a key figure in Trump’s campaign to overturn the 2020 election. He is being divorced by his wife on the grounds of desertion and has been accused of corruption, bribery, fraud, abuse of office, obstruction of justice and perjury. The Texas lower house voted to impeach Paxton, but the Senate narrowly voted to acquit, 14 to 16.

Elsewhere in America, the Democrats have flipped nine seats in state special elections (by-elections) since Trump took office. The Republicans have flipped none. The latest Democrat win was in Arkansas. Other wins have been in Georgia, Iowa, Mississippi, Pennsylvania and Texas.

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Trump’s Department of Homeland Security has become synonymous with repression. Now the cabinet minister responsible for the department is no more. Kristi Noem has been sacked.

Ms Noem is the first senior figure to be sacked by President Trump in his second term. At this stage in Trump’s first term, 37 people had either been fired or had resigned.

In many ways Ms Noem was perfect for the job at Homeland Security. The former Governor of South Dakota is MAGA to her fingertips and her job involved enforcing the signature policy of the Trump Administration—deportations. Noem grasped the nettle with relish. In less than a year she has overseen a record 675,000 deportations.

But her success has been met with some of the severest criticisms of the administration as her Immigration Control Enforcement (ICE) agents have been accused of heavy-handed and repressive tactics to push up deportation targets.

The final straw came in Minneapolis when US citizens Alex Pretti and Renee Good were shot and killed by ICE agents. Insult was added to injury when Noem branded Good and Pretti as “domestic terrorists.”

Congressional Republicans began to call for her resignation. Few dared to do so publicly. But enough did so privately that Trump received their message. The president might have kept her in place if not for some of Noem’s other faux pas. One involved a $220 million ad campaign starring… Kristi Noem. Ms. Noem told investigating congressmen that President Trump had approved the campaign. The president denied any knowledge of it.

Another was the purchase of two luxury jets. Ms Noem claimed they were needed for transporting deportees. Why then, asked investigators, was one of the jets was equipped with a luxury bedroom?

A third reason was likely the affair Noem was said to be having with Corey Lewandowki, Trump’s former campaign manager and Ms Noem’s de facto chief of staff. Lewandowski was fired at the same time as Noem.

Ms Noem’s successor is expected to be as conservative as her. Oklahoma Senator Mark-Wayne Mullin has been nominated for the job. He is a mixed martial arts fighter who once challenged the Teamsters president to a fight during a Senate committee hearing.

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Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is touring the world touting his “Middle Powers” plan. He was in Australia for the first part of the week and then at the weekend headed off for Japan.

As American and Israeli bombers pounded Iran, Carney told the Australian Parliament that the rule of law is being abandoned by the United States and that it is up to the “middle powers” to preserve it. The old-world order, said Carney, “is not coming back.”

He added: “The world will always be shaped by great powers. But it can also be shaped by middle powers that trust each other enough to act with speed and purpose.”

Carney has been travelling almost non-stop since he outlined his “Middle Powers” strategy at the Davos World Economic Forum.

Before Australia he was in India where he ended a feud over Indian espionage in Canada by signing trade deals worth billions. While in Australia he held talks with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to deepen cooperation on trade, artificial intelligence, defense, maritime security and critical minerals.

As in India, the Canadian prime minister, also held extensive meetings with business leaders and investors to “attract new capital into Canada” as an alternative to traditional American investors.

Both Albanese and Carney have President Trump to partly thank for their political success. The two prime ministers were voted into office within a week of each other as voters saw them as a clear alternative to the mercurial Trump.

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Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu has a lot on his plate. There are the mopping-up operations in Gaza; an air and land war in Lebanon; an air war in Iran and Iranian missiles landing in Tel Aviv.

With so many problems he should not have to worry about being charged with corruption, fraud and bribery. That, at least, is the argument of his comrade in arms President Donald Trump who has written to Israel’s President Chaim Herzog demanding that “Bibi” be pardoned.

Demand is not too strong a word because Trump has also threatened to “expose” Herzog if the pardon is not forthcoming.

Herzog has refused and retorted: “Israel is governed by the rule of law.”

Read: Observations of an Expat: Shadow Fleet

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Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and a regular contributor to “The New World”. He also lectures on world affairs and is the author of two editions of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”

This article represents western view, and does not reflect Sindh Courier’s editorial policy