It doesn’t mean American cars or cereal. It means something which really costs—American weaponry, American satellite links and American intelligence
By Tom Arms
There is an outside, long shot chance of saving Ukraine and the Western Alliance—Buy American.
I don’t mean American cars or cereal. I mean something which really costs—American weaponry, American satellite links and American intelligence.
The money is there, $300-plus billion in frozen Russian assets that was being held back for Ukrainian reconstruction. There is not much point in saving it for reconstruction purposes if there is no country to reconstruct.
On top of that the normally frugal Germans are about to remove the EU debt brake and leap into a defense spending spree. And across Europe taxes are set to rise and welfare budgets cut to pay for what is now a defense emergency.
The purpose of the rapid rise in defense spending is to fill the huge hole left by the withdrawal of the United States from Ukraine and probably Europe as a whole. The problem is that no matter how big the budget it will take at least five—probably more—years to rebuild military forces and defense industries, and Putin is banging on Europe’s door today.
That is why British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky pressed Donald Trump for security guarantees as part of any ceasefire agreement.
The problem is that Trump does not see any advantage for him—or America—in providing such guarantees. It involves expensive aid until a ceasefire agreement is reached; commits US forces to a clash with Russia if Putin—as expected—breaks the ceasefire and potentially interferes with his plans to buddy up with fellow autocrat and would block access to Russian natural resources.
So give him a cash incentive with a bit of ego boosting thrown in for good measure. This is the kind of enticement Trump easily understands.
To start with the US gets the mineral rights deal he is demanding for past aid. Next, Trump is the recognized point man in negotiations with Vladimir Putin, but he has to consult and keep informed European leaders and Zelensky.
The US continues to provide military and intelligence aid while ceasefire talks are being held. The Europeans at the same time increase their contribution and pay for the US support using the frozen Russian assets and their augmented defense budgets. As part of the agreement the European powers guarantee the future security of Ukraine. Russia does the same, although no one will believe them and the United States officially leaves the scene.
Meanwhile, the European leaders nominate Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. The Norwegian committee that decides the prize winner will almost certainly reject him. But at least the European leaders and Zelensky can say they did their part by nominating him. .
The Europeans will continue to supply Ukraine with weapons and buy the American equipment that will enable them to 1- beef up their own defense forces 2- supply their boots on Ukrainian ground 3- erase the America’s $162 billion trade deficit with the EU and 4- Eliminate the need for tariffs.
This proposed scenario has the advantage of appealing to Trump’s transactional instincts and pours money into American coffers. He should love it.
But it has lots of provisos and consequences. First proviso is that Putin accepts it. That is unlikely. He is demanding international recognition of the territories he has illegally annexed and then some. He also wants Ukraine de-militarized and banned from NATO and probably the EU as well. Finally, he wants a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine. All of which means he wins. The West loses and there is no need for security guarantees.
The other problem concerns Trump’s long-term strategy. It is increasingly feared by many that the populist American leader identifies more closely with his Russian counterpart than America’s traditional allies. If that is so then his plan could be to throw Ukraine and Europe to the Russian bear in return for access to Russian natural resources and some sort of alliance with the Kremlin and he will reject any deal that thwarts that goal.
Regardless, the major consequence of almost any course of action is the rearmament of Europe. This will inevitably lead to its political independence from Washington, which Americans should not want. On this issue, the role of Britain becomes crucial. For more than a century it has acted as a bridge between America and continental Europe. Sir Keir wants to continue that role. The British voted in 2016 that they don’t want to be part of Europe. They may be forced to reconsider that decision.
World Review
World ReviewFriedrich Merz is steaming ahead—and he hasn’t even formed his government.
The string bean leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is certain to be chancellor as soon as he has formed his coalition with the Social Democrats. But that will take several weeks of political haggling and the fast moving and fast deteriorating international scene dictates that the power house of Europe must be involved NOW.
So, next week the German parliament is being recalled to amend the federal constitution to allow the government to increase borrowing to boost the economy by investing in infrastructure and to pay for a bigger defense establishment. This means that when the new government is sworn in on March 25th it will have the financial means to hit the ground running.
Up until the election of Donald Trump Merz was a firm Atlanticist. But on election night he he spun 180 degrees. “My absolute priority,” he told supporters, “will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”
And for those who worry about Trump pulling out of NATO, Merz strongly hinted that Europe may be the ones to leave the alliance.
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The US Department of Defense recently published a manual on counter-insurgency called Joint Publication 3-24 (JP3-24). It argued that the lessons over the past 60 years show that in the 21st century the only way that one country can successfully occupy another is through total annihilation.
“To hold countries,” wrote the American planners, “you need to impose order. To impose order you need to control populations. To control populations you need to use violence. Violence leads to violence, which is inherently antithetical to order.”
American forces have discovered in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan that, even with the support of local governments, tiny pockets of resistance can make chaos more or less permanent. Attempts to quell that chaos are counterproductive as they only result in reactive violence.
The days of colonial empires imposing their rule on near-docile populations is over. In the post-colonial world populations demand the right to rule. If occupiers want to usurp that right they have to impose draconian anti-insurgent measures and each new imposition undermines their control.
What the US has found to its cost, the Russians should have concluded after the failure of their Ukrainian puppet Viktor Yanukovych and will discover again if they succeed in ousting Volodomyr Zelensky and installing a stooge in Kyiv. Vladimir Putin will certainly discover the truth of JP3-24 if he goes onto re-establish the Russian empire and conquers Georgia, Moldova, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and others.
His only hope is to replace the local majority with an ethnic Russian majority. This was a well-tried tactic of the tsars and Joseph Stalin which led to the forced removal of local populations to less equable climes such as Siberia.
The Israelis and Donald Trump favor a similar forced displacement in Israel: the forced removal of Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt. But the Israeli far-right also appear to have an alternative strategy: the annihilation of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank. To be fair, they have given the Palestinians a choice between the two.
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Canada will have a new prime minister on Sunday. The most likely winner is former governor of Canada and England’s central banks Mark Carney. Runner-up is expected to be finance minister Chrystia Freeland.
Whomever it is, their first and number one problem will be Donald Trump.
His tariffs and demands that Canada erase its 5,525-mile long border with the US and become the union’s 51st state are infuriating 41 million Canadians.
Read: Canada’s ruling Liberals move on from Trudeau with Trump boost
“This is no longer a joke,” Canadian foreign minister Melanie Joly recently told the BBC, “I have spoken with Donald Trump and members of his administration and they mean it.”
Outgoing Premier Justin Trudeau has said that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on Canadian goods have nothing to do with fentanyl crossing the border. Only one percent of the fentanyl consumed in the US enters via Canada. It is, Trudeau maintains, clearly designed to force Canada into joining the United States through economic sanctions.
Warning to Trump: You should be nicer to the Canadians. You need them. They are an essential part of the NORAD command which protects the United States from Chinese and Russian missiles flying over the Arctic (the most likely attack route). There are three main NORAD bases in Canada: Goosebay in Newfoundland/Labrador, Bagotville in Quebec and Comox in British Columbia. In addition there are 35 remote radar stations stretched across the Yukon and Norhwest Territories.
In addition, the US is plugged into the Canadian power grid and 35 states rely on Canadian electricity in whole or part. There is also the fact that half of America’s oil imports come from Canada and the two countries are each other’s largest trading partner. Canada imports more from America then Japan, China and the UK combined.
But then Trump may want Canada for its oil, defensive line, hydro-electricity, plus its rare earth mineral deposits, and its access to the Northwest Passage which is becoming ice-free through climate change.
He should, however, be careful about what he wishes. If Canada joins the union it would almost certainly be as ten separate provinces. This would give Canadians 72-75 Electoral College votes. Liberal-minded and infuriated Canada would almost certainly vote en masse for the Democrats. The Republicans and Trumpism would be assigned to the political dustbin of history. Hmm, perhaps not such a bad idea after all.
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Uproar in New Zealand. The Pacific island’s High Commissioner in London has been unceremoniously sacked for appearing to be critical of Donald Trump.
Phil Goff, was asking questions of the Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen, after her speech at Britain’s Royal Institute of International Affairs. Did she think, he asked, that Trump was aware of the lessons of history in relation to Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler!
Foreign Minister Winston Peters immediately fired Goff, declaring that his “disappointing” comments had made the high commissioner’s position “untenable.”
Liberal-minded New Zealanders were infuriated. They thought any implied criticism of the American president was justifiable. Professional diplomats I consulted, however, disagree. They think that Goff overstepped his diplomatic mark and had to go.
But there are also political undercurrents at work. Goff is the former leader of New Zealand’s Labor Party. The country currently has a conservative coalition government which includes Peters’ populist New Zealand First Party. Relations between Goff and Peters have never been warm.
Peters’ attitude towards Trump has been carefully ambivalent. He has praised his populism, anti-globalist stance and his positions on immigration. They mirror his own views. But he has also criticized Trump’s rhetoric and style as unnecessarily divisive.
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Elon Musk is a self-confessed druggie. Not just any drug. No, he is a regular user of ketamine.
He told former CNN host Don Lemon: “There are times when I have a sort of negative chemical state in my brain, like depression… that’s not linked to any negative news. Ketamine is helpful for getting out of a negative frame of mind.” So, explained Musk, he takes a dose every other week.
According to Oxford Professor Rupert McShane, ketamine is not to be messed with. It should, he said, only be administered in controlled clinical conditions to treat those with severe depression as an alternative to electric shock therapy.
Ketamine is also used by vets for tranquilizing horses. Regular users become detached, happy, chilled and “tripped out.” Sound familiar?
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Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War and “America Made in Britain.”
