There is a sort of unanimity within the United States towards the war.
Democrats, different wings within the Republican Party and even the president, accept that it has had bad consequences while not necessarily accepting that it was a bad decision. They would like to see an end to the Iran War. But how to end the war? Do they cut their losses, admit defeat and walk away? Or do they renew efforts to bomb Iran to the negotiating table?
By Tom Arms | London
The confetti has settled, the champagne is flat and the celebratory balloons have floated to the ground. The midterm elections are over. MAGA and Trump have been well and truly trounced.
Now is the time to worry about what Donald J. Trump will do in the next two months while he still has a sycophantic Republican Congress for the next two months—especially in Iran.
The new Democrat-controlled Congress does not start business until January 3rd. One of its first orders of business will be to start circumscribing the president’s war-making capabilities. The Constitution gives Trump considerable leeway in foreign and defence policy, but Congress still has the power of the purse and the 1973 War Powers Act. Neither option was pursued by the Republican Congress.
On 28 October—a week before the midterms– there was a classified briefing at the White House on the Iran War. Among those attending was Democratic Senator Chris Murphy from the Foreign Relations Committee. The following day he said: “Trump is… planning to restart the war with Iran after the election. Some of us have been briefed on the war plan. And while I cannot disclose any elements, I can say this plan is insane.”
Just how insane is “insane” has been a matter of intense speculation. Tucker Carlson, Trump’s former Fox News mouthpiece who broke with the president over the Iran War, claimed that he had inside information that Trump was considering dropping a nuclear bomb on Iran. He said that the president would make his final decision the weekend after the midterms and the target would be Pickaxe Mountain where the bulk of Iran’s nuclear enrichment remains safe under 300 feet of granite.
Such a scenario is difficult to imagine, even for Donald Trump. In fact, the President has identified Pickaxe Mountain as a target but has ruled out using a nuclear bomb. If he did It would transform the United States from borderline rogue state to international pariah. Russia could exploit the move to drop the bomb on Ukraine which would in turn invite a response from Britain and France. Dropping the bomb would set off a chain reaction of nuclear proliferation. Many countries have the money and the knowledge to build their own nuclear weapons but have been deterred by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and American pressure. Japan, Germany, Sweden, Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and many others have speculated about developing their own nuclear deterrent. Each new member of “The Club” increases the likelihood of Armageddon.
It should be stressed that Carlson offered no firm evidence for his Apocalyptic tweet on X, and no one else has backed it up. But Carlson’s has retained strong links in the White House and Defence Department so the idea cannot be summarily dismissed.
More credence, however, is being given to reports from The New York Times and the Wall Street Journal that the White House meeting attended by Chris Murphy discussed a prolonged US-Israeli bombing campaign focused on military installations, nuclear enrichment facilities and Iran’s energy infrastructure and that at least some of the bombing would be in civilian areas. Also, that in the week before the midterms, America’s regional Arab allies were told to prepare for revenge attacks from Iran.
Currently there are two aircraft carrier groups in the Arabian Sea: one led by the USS George H.W. Bush and other the USS George Washington. A third, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, has been ordered to the region. The aircraft carrier groups include an estimated 20,000 marines and a number of missile-armed destroyers, frigates and submarines. The total number of US fighter bombers in the region will soon number nearly 200. In comparison. Britain’s total active RAF fighter aircraft fleet totals 158.
So far, according to the Pentagon, the Iran War has cost American taxpayers a minimum of $47 billion. One of the first legislative items that the lame duck Congress must consider is a Department of Defence/War request for an additional $67 billion.
The Administration is split on the Iran War. Vice-President J.D. Vance is reported to have been against it from the start and blamed the conflict for the Republican thrashing at the polls. Even Donald Trump admitted that the war contributed to the midterm defeat. But he qualified that statement by adding: “If I had to do again, I’d have to do it again because long-term, it’s the only answer. You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
There is a sort of unanimity within the United States towards the war. Democrats, different wings within the Republican Party and even the president, accept that it has had bad consequences while not necessarily accepting that it was a bad decision. They would like to see an end to the Iran War. But how to end the war? Do they cut their losses, admit defeat and walk away? Or do they renew efforts to bomb Iran to the negotiating table?
The decision lies with the president. Over 50 years ago, Trump’s right-wing mentor Roy Cohn advised the young Donald to always “attack, attack attack. Admit nothing. Deny everything. No matter what happens claim victory and never admit defeat.”
Donald Trump has never wavered from that advice and it has taken him all the way to the White House—twice.
Read: Observations of an Expat: Visions of America
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Tom Arms is Foreign Editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He is also a regular contributor to “The New World” and lectures on world affairs. He is the author of two editions of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War,” “World Elections on File,” “America Made in Britain” and “The Falklands Crisis.
