Bridging Pakistan’s Water Divide

Political will and institutional reforms are key to lasting stability

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Without a comprehensive strategy, disputes like the Sindh-Punjab water conflict could threaten national stability, economic productivity, and food security

Ishaq Tunio | USA

The water dispute between Sindh and Punjab is one of the oldest and most contentious issues in Pakistan, dating back to the late 19th century when large-scale irrigation projects were developed to support agriculture in Punjab, often at the expense of downstream provinces, such as Sindh. Following the creation of Pakistan in 1947, multiple agreements, including the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 and the Water Apportionment Accord of 1991, have been attempted to resolve the issue; however, conflicts persist.

This underscores the urgency of adaptive water management and a renewed constitutional commitment to the equitable distribution of resources, as outlined in the 1991 Water Accord, utilizing modern technology. Clear strategies should guide such interventions focused on conflict resolution. As climate change and population growth exacerbate water shortages, the federal government must take a more active role in resolving conflicts over the Indus River system.

Pakistan’s internal water conflict is not an isolated case. Several countries have faced similar disputes but have successfully managed them through legal frameworks and advanced technological solutions that could help Pakistan navigate its crisis.

GPR_20190501 — Next Generation Water Observing System

In the United States, the Colorado River Compact of 1922 played a key role in resolving conflicts between seven states over water distribution. While disputes still arise, the presence of arbitration mechanisms—such as Supreme Court interventions and federal mediation—has ensured stability. Technological advancements have further strengthened the management of the Colorado River Basin. The Next Generation Water Observing System (NGWOS), launched by the U.S. Geological Survey, provides real-time data collection on river flow and water usage. Similarly, NASA’s River Observing System (RiOS) employs drones equipped with advanced imaging technology to monitor water levels with high precision.

Spain, a country that has struggled with water shortages and inter-regional disputes, has implemented a decentralized governance model. The National Water Law of 1985 established basin-level water authorities for managing water distribution in a fair and equitable manner. As a result, regional governments, farmers, and industries have a voice in water allocation decisions, thereby reducing tensions. Spain has also invested in modern irrigation techniques and artificial intelligence-driven hydrological models to predict water availability. Remote Sensing & Image Velocimetry- Techniques like Spatiotemporal Image Velocimetry (STIV) analyze images to estimate surface flow velocities. Hydrological Modeling – Models such as the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model simulate hydrological processes to enhance forecasting accuracy. Remote sensing plays a crucial role in tracking river flows, preventing over-extraction, and maintaining an ecological balance.

In Pakistan, the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord was a landmark agreement; despite Sindh’s reservations, it still complains that it was deprived of its due share, which was allocated 114.35 million acre-feet of water among the provinces. However, fluctuating seasonal flows, depriving the Indus Delta of adequate water, and a lack of transparent monitoring have led to persistent disputes.

Sindh has accused Punjab of excessive water withdrawals, primarily through the construction of projects such as the Greater Thal Canal, which it claims was developed without the province’s consent. The absence of transparent monitoring mechanisms has worsened these conflicts. The introduction of real-time telemetry systems at all barrages and canals could help ensure fair water distribution, but technical failures and political resistance have marred past attempts. Modern technologies such as Internet of Things (IoT) sensors, non-contact radar technology, and AI-driven data analytics could provide a breakthrough in resolving disputes. Wireless riverbed sensors capable of transmitting real-time data could enhance transparency. At the same time, drone-based surveillance—similar to NASA’s River Observing System—could offer a comprehensive analysis of water flow patterns.

Political interference remains a significant obstacle to resolving the Sindh-Punjab water dispute. While constitutional bodies such as the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) and the Council of Common Interests (CCI) are mandated to oversee water distribution, critics argue that Punjab’s dominant voting power within these institutions has historically influenced decisions in its favor. The current CCI has five votes from Punjab against three members from all other provinces out of a total of eight members. The appointment of the IRSA Chairman and the Member Technical on a political basis, as well as the proposed new amendments to the IRSA Act, are the bone of contention.

The recent dispute escalated further in January 2024 when IRSA approved the Cholistan Canal project to cultivate 0.7 million acres of desert land as part of a green initiative. Sindh strongly opposed the project, warning that similar desert farming experiments had failed in countries such as India and Saudi Arabia. The project could lead to desertification in the irrigated areas of Sindh, the destruction of the Indus Delta, and an environmental disaster. Despite technical objections, the project is being pursued.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan has the authority to intervene under Article 184(3) of the Constitution to resolve disputes related to water sharing. Still, people are often disillusioned with the superior courts, which are perceived as being influenced by the establishment and politics of one province, such as the CCI.

To prevent further escalation, water experts and policymakers have recommended a multi-faceted approach that combines legal reforms, technological advancements, and diplomatic engagement. Strengthening IRSA’s mandate to ensure equal representation from all provinces and install advanced, tamper-proof telemetry systems at key water control points, including those near the Guddu, Sukkur, and Kotri Barrages, as well as close to the Indus Delta, could provide real-time data, ensuring transparency in distribution, an independent water audit system where third-party auditors assess water allocations and publish findings publicly.

With climate change accelerating glacial retreat and altering monsoon patterns, Pakistan’s water crisis is expected to worsen. Without a comprehensive strategy, disputes like the Sindh-Punjab water conflict could threaten national stability, economic productivity, and food security. Experts emphasize that Pakistan must act promptly to implement sustainable water management policies grounded in scientific research. However, political will and institutional reforms will be key to ensuring long-term stability.