Observations of an Expat: End of Empire

Great powers decline when their military commitments outstrip their economic base
- Trump has ignored international and domestic law, alienated allies and allowed a rogue Netanyahu to run wild. He loses whatever he decides
By Tom Arms
Trump’s metaphorical coin-tossing decision-making over the bombing of Iran is the clear result of imperial over-reach cloaked in dangerous isolationism.
But whichever way the president decides, the fact that he has to sit in the Oval Office with a handful of yes men and women underscores the fragility of American foreign policy and the rapid decline of a great power.
Previous post-war presidents could rely on an elaborate and carefully constructed network of alliances, treaties and international laws to help with the decision-making. The decisions were not always right. But if they were wrong the burden of the blame could be shared and recovery was easier.
Trump suffers from hubris—aka excessive pride– has extended that hubris to a significant portion of the American electorate and wrapped it in a cloak of isolationism. This in turn has led to the withdrawal—or threatened withdrawal—from alliances, treaty obligations, and international and domestic law.
In 1987 the British historian Paul Kennedy wrote the seminal geopolitical history “The Rise and Fall of Great Powers.” In it he set down the axiom that great powers decline when their military commitments outstrip their economic base—a process he called “imperial overstretch.”
Before Trump the United States appeared to be set to avoid the Kennedy Trap. For a start the fount of its power was liberal democratic values rather than the naked greed which drove the imperial age. It then concentrated on forming alliances and diplomatic cooperation with the countries—Western Europe, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada…– with which it shared those values.
Those countries in return provided military bases and support. MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans claim that America’s allies have exploited American goodwill. That is true. But they have also delivered the facilities that have provided America with a global reach which in turn has increased its trading and economic power.
Trump has rejected liberal democratic values and attacked the countries and political leaders that continue to espouse them. He has rejected the rule of law at home and abroad. Trump is a 17th century mercantilist who is governed by the belief that might is right. Billionaires are mighty so they must be right. America is mighty therefore it must be right.
MAGA also rejects alliances (or what they might term encumbrances) and restrictions imposed on America by international institutions. But at the same time MAGA has global ambitions. It wants to unilaterally dictate terms out of a sense of victimhood while at the same time withdrawing from obligations. This is a strategic mismatch. It is a variation on the Kennedy thesis by creating the conditions for over-reach through isolationism.
America’s military commitments will eventually outstrip its economic means because it must retain global ambitions to keep markets. But it is trying to achieve this from an isolationist position which involves alienating the countries it needs to stay a super power.
So what does all the above have to do with bombing Iran? For a start, Trump has not estranged all of America’s allies. Just most of them. This means that because of scarcity value, the balance of power between the US and Israel has shifted away from America. The US-armed Israeli tail is wagging the American dog.
The problem with the Israeli-American alliance is that the interests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are not a hand in glove fit with those of the United States. They have the shared goal of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. But Netanyahu has the additional aim of creating successive crises which allow him to retain power which is threatened by an election and a series of pending fraud trials.
As a global super power, American interests are much wider and involve protecting thousands of American servicemen and women in the Gulf region; preventing conflict from spreading throughout the region and insuring that oil continues to be shipped through the Straits of Hormuz to oil refineries around the world. Thirty percent of the world’s oil originates in the Persian Gulf. War between Iran and the US could close the Gulf and bring the world economy to the brink of collapse.
America and Israel are not the only countries opposed to the Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon. But Israel’s actions in Gaza and the West Bank are pushing it towards pariah status. Western countries who would previous have leapt to Israel’s aid are now having second thoughts. They are also having second thoughts about supporting an American president who threatens to destroy their economies with tariffs; their climate petrol fumes; their values with support for Russia and their security with threats of the withdrawal of military support.
In 1990 Iraq’s Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait and threatened the peace of the Gulf region. President George H. Bush immediately set about laying the diplomatic groundwork to eject Saddam from Kuwait. He secured a UN resolution authorizing the use of force and assembled a coalition of 35 countries to attack. And finally, the first President Bush had a clear exit strategy—once Iraq was expelled from Kuwait, US troops left.
In contrast, the second Gulf War in 2003 was a disaster for the younger President Bush. He failed to secure UN backing or support from NATO allies (with the exception of the UK). Neither did he have a clear exit strategy. Saddam was toppled and executed. But at the cost of 4,500 American lives and a diplomatic disaster which continues to this day.
MAGA and Trump’s foreign policy makes the neo-conservatives of the Dubya era look like left-wing globalists. Neither Trump nor Netanyahu have an exit strategy or a clear plan for what happens after Iran’s bomb-making capability is destroyed. Both men have hinted at the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, but Trump is prevented by law (1981 Executive Order 12333) from carrying out assassinations. They have also both hinted at regime change, but the experience of Iraq shows how difficult that is.
Trump has backed himself in the corner. He withdrew from the Iran Nuclear Agreement in 2017. He has ignored international and domestic law, alienated allies and allowed a rogue Netanyahu to run wild. He loses whatever he decides. And so does the rest of the world.
World Review
MAGA is divided. Its strength in the past that it has been united behind one man—Donald Trump.
Whatever he said was taken as gospel. Whatever he did was heroic.
But now there is a possibility that he may decide to join forces with Israel and drop a bunker-busting bomb on Iran’s underground nuclear enrichment facilities. As a result some of the shine is coming off MAGA’s great leader.
“This has not been thought through,” said Trump’s former campaign manager Steve Bannon. He added: “Stopping forever wars is one of the three planks of the MAGA Movement.”
Tucker Carlsson is known as Trump’s lead trumpeter. “I am afraid this (the US bombing of Iran) will see the end of the American Empire,” he said.
And then there is loony MAGA to the core Marjorie Taylor Greene: “Forever wars, intervention, regime change, put America last, kill innocent people, are making us broke and will ultimately lead to our destruction.”
Then on the other side are figures such as senators Lindsay Graham and Mitch McConnell. They have both called on the president to support Israel and strike Iran while it is at its weakest. But then they are Old Guard rather than MAGA.
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Iran desperately needs friends. Unfortunately for Tehran they appear to be backward in coming forward.
The two most likely candidates for a supporting role are China and Russia. The Russians have been the grateful recipients of Iranian-made drones which are making an impact in the Ukraine War.
Moscow was quick to condemn the Israeli attack which it said was unprovoked and in breach of the UN Charter. The Russians also accused Moscow of undermining diplomatic efforts to persuade Iran to peacefully abandon any nuclear ambitions.
That all sounds very warlike, and in January of this year Tehran and Moscow signed a 20-year “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership” which covered a wide range of interests including, defense, intelligence sharing, nuclear technology and energy. The agreement, however, does not commit Russia to come to Iran’s defense if the latter is attacked.
On Thursday Moscow closed all of its diplomatic offices in Iran and withdrew its entire diplomatic staff. They were needed if Putin was going to provide substantive aid.
China—in total disregard of sanctions—gets 20 percent of its oil from Iran. In 2021 Tehran agreed to become a key link in China’s Belt/Road Initiative. In 2023 China brokered a diplomatic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
China wants to increase its influence in the Middle East and its sees Iran as its Trojan horse in achieving that goal. Unfortunately it took four days for President Xi Jinping to get around to even making a statement on Israel’s attack. And then it was to offer China’s good offices as a peace broker rather than as no-holds barred Iranian supporter.
The fact is, Tehran is a rogue state. It exports terrorism and destabilizes the world order. Few people outside of Iran would grieve its demise and many inside would also be glad to see the fall of the theocracy. But that could only make the mullahs more dangerous as they are backed into a corner with no option but to lash out in return for a guaranteed ticket to an Islamic paradise.
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There a new answer to the Gaza aid crisis—the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
Virtually all other aid to Gaza is being blocked. In fact, this week, 30 Gazans were killed when Israeli Defense Force soldiers opened fire on Gazans gathered at a distribution hub operated by NGOs. The UN says that more than 200 people have killed while collecting food at aid stations.
The GHF, however, seems to be able to get the aid through. This could have something to do with the organization’s suspected links to the Israeli government and the Trump Administration.
The organization was incorporated in Delaware two weeks after Trump’s inauguration. Its director is Johnnie Moore, an evangelical preacher with close ties to the president. The GFH has raised $150 million to spend on food for Gazans.
Exactly where the money has come from no one is saying. But most people suspect it is coming from inside Israel.
Who cares if vital food, equipment and clothing is reaching hard-pressed Gazans? Someone might because it is possible that heavy string is attached to the aid. Among GHF’s keenest supporter is far-right Economics Minister Bezalel Ben-Smotrich. The Boston Consulting Group, which helped to set up the GHF, has since distanced itself from it and the foundation’s first director resigned, protesting that it breached humanitarian principles.
The belief is that the GHF is being used by Israelis to create conditions for the removal of all Palestinians and the introduction of Jewish settlers. The GHF hubs are being set up near the Egyptian border which means that if the Gazans want aid, they must congregate near the border with Egypt.
Ben-Smotrich, Trump and Netanyahu, have talked openly of resettling the Palestinians in Egypt. If they were channelled into the border areas and then the border crossing was opened by the Israeli authorities, many Palestinians would gladly cross into Egypt to escape the nightmare that is Gaza.
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Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”