I thought of writing this open letter after the elections. The best thing to do is write a “Trump Told You So” letter or, as the election is yet to happen, “Trump Is Telling You So” letter.
By Tom Arms
Dear Trump Supporters,
I thought of writing this open letter after the elections. But I decided that would be pointless because you really needed to read it before you voted.
Also, if I wrote it after the election, it was going to be an I-told-you-so missive which is never a nice thing to do, although it is very satisfying to the writer.
So, having dismissed the two options above, I thought the best thing to do is write a “Trump Told You So” letter or, as the election is yet to happen, “Trump Is Telling You So” letter.
The thinking behind my letter is that all you have to do is believe the words coming out of the man’s mouth to decide to cast your ballot for Kamala Harris. If you can’t bring yourself to do that, don’t vote at all, write-in your mother-in-law’s name or put an X next to the name of a third party candidate.
This letter will also include the actions of Donald Trump as well as the words because, as we all know, actions speak much, much louder than words.
Let’s start with the hot topic of immigration. Trump has said he wants to deport 20 million immigrants. Think about it. Twenty million people, some of which are certain to be your friend, neighbour, colleague, maybe even a relative.
And where will these 20 million be kept while waiting to be flown to the countries they fled. Rest assured, they won’t be staying at the local Hilton.
Read: The U.S. Immigration Debate
Finally, what about the cost? Twenty million people will be taken out of the economy. That it is twenty million people who produce and buy goods and services. If all they earned was $30,000 a year that means $600 billion would be taken out of the economy. But that is nothing compared to the price tag for police and enforcement agents to implement Trump’s plans. It is estimated that will cost the taxpayer $850 billion.
As we are talking about money, how about Trump’s wider economic policies the key points of which are tariffs and taxes. Trump wants a 10-20 percent tariff on all imported goods and tariffs ranging from 60 percent to 500 percent (depending on which rally you attend) on Chinese goods.
Trump claims this will protect American industries from unfair competition. Perhaps. But there is a big downside. First of all, big companies now have complex international supply chains which means that the car you drive is constructed with parts from about 30 different countries. All of whom would pay tariffs. This means the cost of your car would soar. The respected—and apolitical—Peterson Institute for International Economics reckons that Trump’s tariffs could increase inflation to 6-9 percent by 2026 and cost the average American household anywhere between $2,600 and $7,600 a year.
Ah, but Trump has also promised tax cuts. True. He has pledged to eliminate taxes on tips and social security. More importantly he will make permanent his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCA) which lowered corporation tax and taxes for the wealthy. The Congressional Budget Office (also apolitical) calculated that the top one percent of the population received about 25 percent of the benefits from the TCA.
Possibly of greater long-term significance is the impact tax cuts would have on government coffers. The Congressional Budget Office calculates that they would cost the government $1.6 trillion over the next decade and push Social Security and Medicare into bankruptcy. That figure does not include the cost of Trump’s deportation program or the cost of deporting taxpayers. If you are worried about the deficit then you should worry about Trump.
Then there is Trump’s assertion that he will “go after” his political opponents whom he has branded “the enemy within.” He has even named them: Nancy Pelosi, Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton, Liz Cheney, Dick Cheney, Adam Schiff, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, the Department of Justice, the FBI, judges, lawyers, prosecutors, election officials… According to Iowa Public Radio he has threatened to prosecute his enemies on more than 100 occasions. Trump supporters—and Trump campaign officials—dismiss these unconstitutional threats as “politicking” and point out that Trump did not use his office to prosecute or persecute political enemies during his first time.
Oh, but he did. In some cases he tried and failed. In others he succeeded. Hillary Clinton was not prosecuted because Attorney General Jeff Sessions refused to pursue the case. He also recused himself from the investigation into the alleged collusion between Russia and the Trump campaign. For his refusal, Sessions, was fired.
Read: Trump, Project 2025 embrace ruinous immigration plan, say critics
But FBI Director James Comey and his deputy Andrew McCabe had the temerity to continue the investigation. Trump fired both of them. McCabe was fired just before retirement and lost his pension. Then both men were subjected to an intensive IRS audit which cost them hundreds of thousands in legal and accountancy fees and many sleepless nights. In the end Comey was told he owed no taxes and McCabe received a $500,000 tax rebate. Using tax inspectors to investigate political opponents is a favourite tactic of dictators.
Of course, using his office to persecute political opponents would be unconstitutional and should make Trump unfit for office. There is a long list of people who have worked with the former president who say just that. At the top of the list is his former vice president Mike Pence. Rex Tillerson, Trump’s first Secretary of State called him “a moron.” His lawyer Mike Cohen said Trump is a “con man, cheat and racist.” James Mattis, former Secretary of Defense, said Trump is “a threat to the constitution.” And more recently, former chief of staff John Kelly pulled no punches when he described the former president as a “fascist.” The above is an abbreviated list.
I realize that foreign policy is not at the top of the agenda for most voters. But you should be worried about Trump’s foreign policy in general and his Ukraine policy in particular. Ukraine is a democratic country fighting a dictatorship that wants to swallow it up. Trump says that he would resolve the conflict “in 24 hours” if elected. The only way he can do that is by cutting off Ukraine’s life line—American military aid. Russia would then win and the West—which includes America—would lose.
Finally, Trump did try to overthrow the government. That is what January 6 and the election lie actually is—an attempted coup.
World Review
China is unhappy. So is Belarus. Both countries are worried about North Korea sending troops to Russia in the middle of the Ukraine war.
President Xi Jinping is worried that the move will de-stabilize the Korean Peninsula, escalate and complicate the Ukraine War, increase Russian influence in the Far East and potentially drag China into a head-on conflict with NATO.
Alexander Lukashenko is concerned that the appearance of non-Russian troops in Ukraine will increase pressure on him to send Belarusian soldiers in support of the Kremlin.
Xi hates uncertainty. He likes his foreign policy to run along diplomatic railway lines painted bright red so that others know not to cross them. If there are going to be any spanners to be thrown, he wants to toss them and control their flight and consequences.
He does not like North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. He is uneasy about the hereditary communist dictator’s nuclear arsenal. He supplies the regime with just enough aid and trade to keep them going, but not enough to threaten the status quo. This is because for the past 74 years one of the chief aims of China is to keep Korea divided and to maintain North Korea as a buffer state between the Chinese border and 25,000 American soldiers in South Korea. Anything which threatens to disrupt that policy is bad news in Beijing.
The bromance between Vladimir Putin and Kim threatens to upset this delicately balanced apple cart. Kim will want something in return for his troops. It will almost certainly include Russian military help which will embolden the mercurial North Korean leader and increase the threat to South Korea and Japan.
Belarus is on the frontline in the Ukraine War. The initial attack in 2022 was launched from its territory. Lukashenko is closely allied with Russia and continues to provide bases and logistical support. But Lukashenko knows he is unpopular. He clings to power with the help of the Belarusian KGB (yes, they retained the name of the old Soviet organization). Committing his small military force of 50,000 to the Ukraine War would be unpopular and threaten his rule.
By the way, just everyone else is also unhappy about North Korean troops fighting in Ukraine. It adds a new and dangerous dimension by internationalizing the conflict.
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Russia is unhappy too. The recent referendum in Moldova on closer ties with the European Union did not go the way the Kremlin wanted. It was extremely close: 50.46 percent in favour of closer ties and 49.54 percent against.
The Russians did everything they could to push the vote the other way. They played fast and loose with bribery, intimidation and misinformation. A BBC reporter was filmed being approached by a voter asking for the payment she had been promised.
The misinformation focused on an expensive advertising campaign which claimed the EU planned to brainwash Moldovan children to turn gay or transgender. The gay community is generally unpopular throughout Eastern Europe.
The referendum was held at the same time as the first round of a presidential election. The pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu finished 12 points ahead of her 10 rivals. But with 42 percent of the vote, she failed to secure the necessary simple majority needed to avoid a second round.
So, on November 3rd, Moldovans troop to the polls again to decide whether their president will be Ms. Sandu or the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo who won 26 percent of the vote in the first round.
With a 12-point lead you would think that Ms. Sandu was a certainty to be returned to office. But a number of the losing candidates have urged their supporters to vote for Stoianoglo. It is likely to be a close result, and if the pro-Russian candidate wins expect him to demand a recount of the EU referendum.
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The Russians are also closely watching parliamentary elections in Georgia. Again the issue is whether a former Soviet satellite leans towards Moscow or Brussels.
Opinion polls show that around 80 percent of Georgians want closer ties with the EU, and for a while talks between Brussels and Tbilisi were progressing nicely. Then they stalled when the ruling Georgia Dream Party started passing laws which breached the EU’s human rights provisions.
The EU negotiators were particularly concerned about the “Anti-LGBT Propaganda Law” which banned support for the LGBT community and the “Foreign Agents Law” which required journalists, ngos and others to register as foreign agents if they received any money from outside Georgia.
As a result of these laws the EU has threatened to cut off financial assistance as well as pulling out of talks on an association agreement. The US has imposed financial restrictions and travel bans on senior Georgia Dream officials whom they say are undermining democracy in Georgia. Meanwhile, Georgia Dream has forged new links with China and Iran, although they are careful to keep their distance from Moscow.
Georgia Dream has been ruling the country since 2012 with Bidzina Ivanishvili as its leader. Up until the start of the Ukraine War, the party was decidedly pro-western. But since 2022 it has become worried that a pro-Western stance risked dragging the country into war with Russia. Their current election campaign is framed as war v. peace. The opposition frames it as Europe v. Russia.
There are several small opposition parties who at the moment are united in their hostility to Georgia Dream and Russia. Opinion polls say that Georgia Dream is poised to secure 34 percent of the vote. But this is the first election in which Georgia will employ a proportional representation system. That means it is likely to win 51 of the 150 parliamentary seats. If the opposition parties remain united Georgia Dream will be ousted from power.
Russia is displeased by the prospect of another of its neighbours veering to the EU and has been financing a bitter campaign of misinformation, bribery and intimidation of political activists, journalists and election officials.
Read – Observations of an Expat: Navalny v. Putin
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Tom Arms is the foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”
