Opinion: ‘New Normal’ in Pak-India Relations

India is no longer the hegemonic power of the South Asia nor can it now dictate its terms to the countries of the region

Ambassador M. Alam Brohi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his post-ceasefire speech told his stunned nation that they had established a ‘new normal’ in dealing with terrorism: blame Pakistan and carry out military strikes on perceived terrorist infrastructure without bothering for any evidence, or a neutral international investigation. This is what he did in 2019 attacking Balakot and, this time around, striking a few places inside Pakistan destroying a mosque and a seminary and killing civilians as a collateral loss. The limited war of 7-10 May started by Prime Minister Modi to avenge the terrorist killings of Pahalgam, honestly speaking, has broken many myths skillfully weaved around India as an emerging major power with enormous political, economic, diplomatic and strategic clout being the leading member of some visible economic groups, and established many new ‘Normals’ in bilateral relations between the two countries.

India has been blaming Pakistan for terrorist acts since long. The patter of its blame game has been constant and consistent. Blame Pakistan within minutes of the terrorism taking place in any corner of the country, unleashing its propaganda brigade from the electronic and print media and fake websites to churn out nosily  fake news and create a hyperbolic atmosphere to drown the voices of sanity for strategic patience and restraint. In 2019, Narendra Modi pushed the two countries to the precipice of war carrying out military strikes inside Pakistan. The conflict saw India being humiliated. We shot down few of its planes and captured alive one of its pilots. Later, it was revealed that the Pulwama suicidal attack was carried out by a local young Kashmiri, Adil Dar whose family had endured untold miseries at the hands of the Indian troops.

It is a fact that the world community did not accept the Indian claim charging Pakistan with the heinous crime of killings at Pahalgam. The Pakistan narrative underscoring the need for an international forensic investigation of the tragic incident was more rational and convincing. Both extremism and terrorism have become an international phenomenon and badly affected many countries.  India has been grappling with multiple secessionist movements since long and faced violent insurgency in many Union states much before the terrorism as we know it today surfaced posing a challenge to the international community. India continues to have insurgencies and secessionist movements within its territory including the occupied part of Jammu and Kashmir which engender militancy and terrorism. What Prime Minister Narendra Modi calls a new normal is the worst kind of legal, moral and civil aberration committed by a state, and would continue to be treated as such by responsible nations.

The brief military encounter has exposed the hollowness of the Indian claim for the conventional military superiority. India no longer enjoys this advantage. The Indian Air Force with all the Western technology, wherewithal and modern planes available to it and marked edge in numbers and infrastructural facilities was humbled by the scarcely-resourced Pakistani pilots flying their Chinese birds with skill and confidence. They received accolades for their superior skill, training and confidence. Strategically, India has degraded itself as no match to Pakistan Air Force. This is a genuine new norm in our bilateral relations which India has to reckon with.

Read: India’s ‘new normal’ of perpetual war will damage its democracy

India had a delusionary concept of its political, economic and diplomatic grandeur owing a great deal to its constant economic growth; the expanding volume of the economy counted as the fifth largest in the world and expected to be the third within a few years; the burgeoning foreign exchange reserves of some $600 billion; the rising per capita income, and highly visible clout in the G-20, BRICS and SCO. The privilege of its alliance with the USA to contain China in the great Asia and Pacific as an important member of the Quad, and enjoying the US-led Western defence supplies and access to the civilian nuclear facilities had added to its arrogance and bullish pasturing. It behaved as a mini superpower.

It looked down upon Pakistan as ‘irrelevant’ in its march to grandeur considering it a failing state collapsing under the weight of its own economic and political follies. Pakistanis, out of sheer humor, had started nicknaming S. Jaishankar, the Indian Minister for External Affairs, as Mr. Irrelevant, referring to his excessive use of this word for Pakistan. This myth has now been broken bringing down India to the level of a developing middle power state grappling with a huge population and unendurable poverty. It should accept this reality reducing its annual military expenditure of over $80billion. It is not a match to China in any sector what to speak of counterweighing to it at the behest of the US-led Western world.

India is no longer the hegemonic power of the South Asia nor can it now dictate its terms to the countries of the region. The strategic and diplomatic power dynamics have shifted and brought Pakistan up as a competitive power. This hyphenation of Pakistan with India which the latter had so laboriously worked to break, has again returned to haunt the Indian nationalist leadership. India will have to shun its arrogant and intimidating pasturing making visible changes in its foreign policy. The chronic issue of Jammu and Kashmir needs to be resolved. The Indian folly has again revived it at the international level paving the way for its resolution in accordance with the UNSC resolutions.

India cannot ignore the international laws, conventions and norms covering distribution of waters of rivers among nations. The precedents of Treaties on waters of Nile and Mekong are worth emulation. The IWT (Indus Water Treaty) is a valid document sanctified by international law. It can be discussed to review each other’s reservations. The South Asian Regional Cooperation should be revived to give a spur to the process of economic integration and political harmony in the region. This forum comprising all the countries of the region has so long remained dysfunctional because of the stubborn policy decisions, arrogance and bully of India. India should shun its hegemonic aspirations.  It is time to unshackle potentials of SARC.

Read: Pulled Back From Catastrophe

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The author is a former member of the Foreign Service of Pakistan and has served as Ambassador for seven years.