Dhaka has boosted its acquisition of arms and ammunition from Islamabad and dispensed with its practice of a full custom inspection of Pakistani imports.
By Nazarul Islam
After nearly five decades of complete void, a Pakistani cargo ship had docked in the port city of Chittagong, Bangladesh, last month. The ship’s arrival heralded a significant shift in Bangladesh’s dealings with Pakistan, from which it parted ways in 1971.
Dhaka has also boosted its acquisition of arms and ammunition from Islamabad and dispensed with its practice of a full custom inspection of Pakistani imports.
These new developments have come in rapid succession since Bangladesh’s interim government took over a few months ago. Leader and Chief Advisor Mohammed Yunus, a Nobel-winning economist, was the consensus candidate after Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina stepped down under pressure in August. During her last two terms in office, she worked closely with India’s government. (Hasina has received asylum in New Delhi, and Dhaka recently asked Interpol to issue a red notice for her arrest.)
Hasina’s departure in the face of mass protests blindsided India, which had frosty relations with her principal political opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). As a result, New Delhi now finds itself with few allies in Bangladesh, even as Yunus has reiterated his interest in maintaining good bilateral relations. Today, the interim government’s overtures toward Pakistan certainly loom large over India’s misgivings about the future of its own ties with Bangladesh.
As the statistics reveal, Bangladeshi economy has grown rapidly in the past decade with annual GDP growth rates consistently above 6 pct. and reaching 7.3 pct. in 2018, placing it among the fastest growing economies in Asia. In many ways, the outlook is positive as big challenges related to insufficient power supply and poor infrastructure are starting to be addressed and a new consumer class emerges with a demand for more and better goods and services.
Moreover, while Bangladesh is located in one of the least integrated regions globally, there is significant potential for cross-border cooperation in a wide range of areas, including development of infrastructure such as roads, tunnels, bridges, power supply and for promoting trade. With a strategic location along potential economic corridors, Bangladesh could act as a hub between India, China and South East Asia. This represents a potential rise in trade, transport and tourism, including in the context of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
However, many issues remain to be addressed for Bangladesh to fully realize its social and economic potential. Economic growth is still mainly driven by the export led Ready-made Garment (RMG) industry, the service and construction industries and remittances. With more than 2 million youths entering the labor market every year, job creation will be crucial – also to address irregular migrant flows.
Read: Bangladesh seeks new supply of ammo from Pakistan
And yet, the inflow of foreign direct investment remains low, mainly due to the poor regulatory framework and business environment as well as widespread corruption and red tape. Moreover, domestic investments suffer from limited and expensive local financing. Despite this, both larger and middle-sized Danish companies are showing an increased interest in entering the local market.
The Ready-made Garment sector accounts for more than 80 pct. of export earnings and employs more than 4 million workers, 60 pct. of whom are women. The success has made Bangladesh the world’s second largest exporter of RMG after China, but the sector’s role in creating employment has started to decline with increased automation.
The pharmaceutical sector has grown significantly and is becoming one of the growth industries with exports to more than 125 countries, including the US and EU markets. Also the information and communications technology (ICT) industry has grown steadily over the last years, with increased outsourcing of services and development solutions by European companies to Bangladesh.
As most imports to Bangladesh are sourced from China and India, the trade balance between Bangladesh and the EU is in clear favour of Bangladesh.
The majority of people living in rural areas are still dependent on agriculture for livelihood and income. Today, Bangladesh is self-sufficient in grains, but productivity increases have stalled and the area of farmland is shrinking, following urbanization and climate change.
Historically, Bangladesh is among the most climate vulnerable countries, victim to heavy rain, floods, cyclones, salinization and spells of drought, intensifying the risk of food insecurity, disappearance of income opportunities for farmers, and the spread of water-related diseases. More than 25 million out of the country’s 165 million people are still living in poverty, mainly in rural areas. Economic projections indicate that the poverty rate will fall to 15-20 pct. by 2030, which is still far from enough to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. In addition, inequality is increasing.
The high level of remittances is believed to have played a major role in the reduction of poverty. With a contribution of around 8-10 pct. to GDP, remittances compose a major pillar of the Bangladeshi economy, and Bangladesh ranks seventh on the list of the world’s top remittance receiving countries.
Every year, more than half a million Bangladeshis join the 9 million already working abroad – mainly in the Middle East and South East Asia. Bangladeshi nationals represent a significant group of irregular migrants arriving in Europe.
In recent years, Bangladesh’s political development has been characterized by an increasing pressure on democracy, rule of law and human rights. This has been most notable in connection with the parliamentary elections in December 2018 and the campaign period preceding it, which was marred with violence and significant obstacles to a level playing field.
The Government has enacted and amended laws, which violate freedom of expression and curtail civil and political rights, such as the freedom of assembly. Civil society space is significantly constrained with i.e. a very bureaucratic and cumbersome registration process.
Despite some progress, the governance system continues to be weak and insufficiently resourced. Most public institutions are inefficient, highly centralized and politicized, making provision of effective services challenging. Corruption continues to be a widespread and systemic problem undermining democratic, social and economic development.
In Bangladesh, India faces today what international relations scholars call a foreign policy realignment. Such shifts mostly stem from two sources: changes in the external environment that force a country to reassess its priorities and strategies or changes in domestic politics.
The latter is apparently contributing to a dramatic alteration in Dhaka’s foreign-policy orientation, with significant consequences for New Delhi.
Under Hasina, who held power in Bangladesh for more than 15 years, the two countries had enjoyed a symbiotic relationship.
Hasina kept Bangladesh’s Islamist forces in check, did not grant sanctuary to Indian secessionist organizations, and welcomed Indian investment. For its part, New Delhi was willing to overlook Dhaka’s democratic deficits under Hasina, provide access to the Indian market, and boost cross-border rail and road connections.
Despite these arrangements, some underlying tensions—both bilateral and rooted in Bangladesh’s domestic politics—dogged the relationship. With Hasina’s departure, these differences are coming to the fore and are likely to lead to a reappraisal of priorities for both sides.
As Bangladesh graduates from the LDC status, compliance with the human and workers’ rights covenants will be of increasing importance to maintain the preferential access to EU markets through the current Everything But Arms (EBA) or future Generalized Scheme of Preferences-Plus (GSP+), that is key for the RMG sector and thus for the Bangladeshi economy.
While employment in the RMG-sector has created opportunities for women, mainly from rural areas with little or no education, gender inequality remains a big challenge as social and institutional barriers still prevent women from taking up jobs and from developing productive skills.
Bangladesh today has the third highest rate of child marriage in the world. Gender based violence, harassment in public transportation, lack of child-care facilities and lack of secured benefits such as maternity leave are common problems.
Bangladesh has made remarkable achievements in access to education, especially at the primary level and for girls. Despite this, the dropout rates are still significant, and only 50 percent of the students who enroll in the first grade reach grade 10. Women continue to lag behind men in higher secondary and tertiary education. Government spending on education as a share of GDP is around 2 per cent, the second lowest in South Asia.
The fragile situation in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where indigenous peoples are poorer and have less access to social services than the national average represents a particular set of problems. The Government is yet to fully implement a peace accord from 1997 and to address tens of thousands of grievances on access to land.
Religious intolerance and violent extremism are on the rise. In recent years, Bangladesh has experienced killings of people who oppose a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam, such as bloggers, and human rights activists as well as religious minorities and foreigners. Factors such as political polarization, increasing inequality and adverse impacts of climate change contribute to the creation of a breeding ground for radicalization, particularly among youth.
This situation is exploited by groups such as Daesh (ISIL), Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), and the Pakistani based Lashkar-e-Taiba, all believed to be active in Bangladesh. The authorities regularly claim to disrupt planned terror attacks.
With the escalation of the Rohingya crisis in 2017, almost one million Rohingya refugees have taken shelter in Cox’s Bazar in the South Eastern part of the densely populated country.
The Government of Bangladesh maintains that the only acceptable outcome is a political solution and that the refugees must return to Myanmar. Yet, this is unlikely to happen in the short- to medium term, and the situation is well under way to become a protracted crisis. While the Bangladeshi people initially welcomed the Rohingya population, there are growing concerns about the negative impacts of their longer-term stay.
Decreasing water levels, environmental degradation and deforestation, road congestion, price hikes, and potential outbreak of diseases are among the consequences that create tensions with local communities. Moreover, there is a risk of trafficking and radicalization in the extremely densely populated camps.
In its international relations, the Government of Bangladesh has placed high importance on reaching out to its neighbors and building broad alliances in the region and beyond. The country is a strong advocate for achieving the SDGs, in particular those related to climate and water resources, aid effectiveness and education for girls.
Bangladesh is an active partner in international organizations and a major contributor of military staff to UN peacekeeping operations. In addition, the country has a high international profile in the promotion of safe, orderly and regular migration. Bangladesh is a member of the Human Rights Council for the period 2019-2021. The country has also applied to become a P4G partner.
From India’s standpoint, irregular immigration from Bangladesh was always a fraught issue—regardless of the government in office, but more so after the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) assumed power in 2014.
Even under Hasina, the leadership in Dhaka proved unwilling to address the matter. The BJP politicized the issue, especially in the lead-up to the 2019 general elections in India; the party’s intransigence can largely be attributed to religious identity and Islamophobia.
Tensions are now rising: After the arrest of a Hindu monk in Bangladesh in November and the protests that have followed, the two countries have traded accusations of failing to protect the rights of religious minorities within their borders.
If Bangladeshi Hindus seek refuge in India, the immigration question could take a troublesome turn. A BJP government would grant these migrants sanctuary while upbraiding Bangladesh.
Backed into a corner, Dhaka would no doubt assail New Delhi for its treatment of Indian Muslims—leading to spiraling hostility. Such hostility is made worse by misinformation: Some Indian reports have misrepresented the situation on the ground in Bangladesh, including portraying events as a “genocide.”
Another issue on which the two sides have failed to agree is a water-sharing agreement on the Teesta River, despite the resolution of a conflict over the Ganges River in 1996.
This issue is particularly nettlesome because even as the BJP government was willing to resolve the matter, it failed to obtain the assent of the state government of West Bengal, which borders Bangladesh.
This issue may become a political cudgel for anti-India forces within Bangladesh.
Meanwhile, some strands of Bangladesh’s domestic politics have long worried India regardless of the party in power in New Delhi. One is the rise of Islamic militancy in Bangladesh and its adverse effects on the country’s Hindu minority.
Those who helped oust Hasina included Islamists and anti-India groups that are now feeling exhilarated. Despite its rhetorical commitment to minority rights, the interim government in Dhaka has so far failed to address the fears and misgivings of Hindus in Bangladesh.
If Bangladesh’s principal Islamist party, the Jamaat-i-Islami, allies with the BNP as it has in the past, the foreign-policy realignment is likely to become full-blown. India’s misgivings about an increasingly hostile neighbor would be realized.
Read: When states lose direction and purpose
New Delhi has few tools at its command to stave off this possible outcome; its inordinate reliance on Hasina and the Awami League to the exclusion of other parties and Bangladeshi civil society has put it in this untenable position.
What does Bangladesh need to do to become a developed country?
The focus must revolve around multifaceted strategies that touch on various sectors, including education, trade, foreign policy, and rural development. Here are some detailed considerations for each aspect:
- Advanced Educational System-
Curriculum Reform: Modernize the curriculum to include more STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) subjects, critical thinking, and digital literacy. This can equip students with skills needed for a competitive global market.
Teacher Training: Invest in comprehensive training programs for teachers to improve their teaching methodologies and subject knowledge, ensuring they can effectively teach the reformed curriculum.
Access and Equity: Ensure all children, regardless of socioeconomic status, have access to quality education. This includes building more schools in rural areas and providing scholarships for underprivileged students.
Technology Integration: Implement digital tools and resources in classrooms to enhance learning experiences and prepare students for a technology-driven world.
Minimize Religious Supremacy: Encourage a secular education system where religious education is a part but does not dominate the curriculum. This helps promote critical thinking and tolerance among students.
- Well-Balanced Trade Relations with China and India
Diversification of Exports:
Develop a diverse range of export products to reduce dependency on a single sector like textiles. This can include investing in technology, pharmaceuticals, and agribusiness.
Bilateral Agreements:
Negotiate balanced trade agreements that protect local industries while promoting exports. Engage in diplomatic dialogues to ensure fair trade practices and tariffs.
Infrastructure Development:
Improve transportation and logistics infrastructure to facilitate smoother trade with neighboring countries. This includes ports, roads, and railways.
Investment in Local Industries: Attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from both China and India into local industries, which can help in technology transfer and create job opportunities.
Trade Facilitation: Simplify trade procedures and reduce bureaucratic red tape to make it easier for businesses to engage in international trade.
- Vibrant Foreign Policy
Regional Cooperation: Actively participate in regional organizations like SAARC and BIMSTEC to foster cooperation and economic integration with neighboring countries.
Strategic Partnerships: Build strategic partnerships with key global players beyond China and India, including the EU, USA, and Japan, to diversify economic and political ties.
Diplomatic Training: Strengthen the Foreign Service with specialized training for diplomats to effectively represent Bangladesh’s interests on the global stage.
Cultural Diplomacy: Promote Bangladeshi culture abroad to build soft power and improve the country’s image internationally.
- Policy for Rural Upliftment
Agricultural Modernization
Invest in modern agricultural techniques, machinery, and research to increase productivity and sustainability in rural areas.
Rural Infrastructure: Develop infrastructure such as roads, electricity, and internet connectivity in rural areas to improve living standards and economic opportunities.
Microfinance and Credit Access: Provide microfinance options and easy access to credit for small farmers and rural entrepreneurs to stimulate economic activities.
Healthcare and Education: Ensure that rural areas have access to quality healthcare and education services to improve the overall quality of life and economic potential of rural populations.
Local Governance
Empower local governments with more resources and autonomy to address the specific needs of their communities effectively.
Implementing these strategies holistically can help Bangladesh progress towards becoming a developed country with robust educational systems, balanced trade relations, an active foreign policy, and vibrant rural communities.
Read: Woes of Pakistan’s paralysis
___________________
The Bengal-born writer Nazarul Islam is a senior educationist based in USA. He writes for Sindh Courier and the newspapers of Bangladesh, India and America. He is author of a recently published book ‘Chasing Hope’ – a compilation of his articles.
