In Pakistan, despite repeated climate shocks, there remains a troubling lack of preparedness, policy coherence, and investment in resilience
With forecasts warning of an unusually chilling climate in 2026, the nation stands at a crossroads.
By Prof. Dr. Abdullah Arijo
In 2025, Pakistan endured devastating rains that overwhelmed infrastructure, displaced communities, and exposed the fragility of our disaster response systems. Now, with forecasts warning of an unusually chilling climate in 2026, the nation stands at a crossroads. Despite repeated climate shocks, there remains a troubling lack of preparedness, policy coherence, and investment in resilience. Pakistan has suffered enough; climate change is no longer a distant threat but a lived reality. Without urgent, coordinated action, the human and ecological toll will only deepen.
Pakistan is gearing up for one of its coldest winters in decades, driven by the return of La Niña and complicated by the lingering fallout from catastrophic monsoon floods.
Pakistan stands at a climactic crossroads. The severity of the 2025 winter, shaped by La Niña and compounded by systemic vulnerabilities, underscores the urgency of proactive governance. Whether the nation succumbs to the chill or rises resiliently will depend on the foresight, coordination, and inclusivity of its response. Climate awareness must translate into collective responsibility and decisive action.
As La Niña resurfaces in late 2025, Pakistan faces a pivotal moment in its climate preparedness journey. Still reeling from the aftermath of devastating monsoon floods, the nation now braces for one of its coldest and driest winters in decades. This shift in climatic conditions poses serious challenges to public health, agriculture, and energy security, demanding a coordinated, climate-aware response across all sectors.
Recent assessments by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN-OCHA) and the Intersector Coordination Group (ISCG) reveal that Pakistan is currently experiencing a marginally negative phase in both ENSO and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). These dual anomalies are expected to suppress winter rainfall across northern Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), exacerbating water scarcity, disrupting agriculture, and intensifying energy demand during peak winter months.
Region Projected Impact
Northern Pakistan (KP, GB): Below-normal snowfall, disrupted livelihoods, increased heating costs, and isolation risks
Southern Pakistan (Sindh, Balochistan): Altered rainfall patterns affecting wheat and vegetable crops, and groundwater stress
Urban Centers (Lahore, Islamabad, Quetta): Prolonged cold spells, fog, air pollution, and heightened public health risks
Strategic Imperatives
The resurgence of La Niña calls for a robust, multi-sectoral response to protect lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems. Key recommendations include:
- Localized Meteorological Alerts: Deploy region-specific forecasts to guide timely preparedness and response.
- Energy Security Measures: Ensure uninterrupted gas and electricity supply during peak demand, with contingency planning for load management and fuel reserves.
- Agricultural Adaptation: Issue crop-specific advisories to adjust sowing calendars and irrigation schedules. Provide farmers with climate-smart inputs and localized extension services.
- Public Health Outreach: Launch targeted awareness campaigns addressing cold-related illnesses and indoor air pollution, prioritizing vulnerable groups such as children, the elderly, and low-income households.
La Niña must no longer be viewed as a rare anomaly, but rather as a recurring indicator of a shifting climate regime. For Pakistan, resilience hinges on two foundational pillars: robust, inclusive education and climate-adaptive infrastructure. These must be reinforced through sustained community engagement, proactive planning, and regionally informed policy responses.
To foster adaptive behaviors and deepen public understanding of climate variability, environmental education must integrate climate literacy across academic curricula and civic platforms. This empowers communities to respond proactively to shifting climate patterns.
Simultaneously, building sustainable infrastructure is essential. Investments should prioritize flood-resilient housing, decentralized energy systems, and sustainable water management. Nature-based solutions and climate-proof urban planning must be promoted to ensure infrastructure is not only adaptive but also ecologically sound and socially inclusive.
Community-based actions require empowering local stakeholders through participatory planning, inclusive decision-making, and resource mobilization is essential. Grassroots resilience ensures that adaptation strategies are equitable, culturally attuned, and locally sustainable.
Read: Escalating Heatwaves and Challenges
___________________
Prof. Dr. Abdullah Arijo is a science writer and academic specializing in public health awareness, veterinary sciences, and biomedical ethics. He regularly contributes articles aimed at promoting evidence-based understanding of health and science in Pakistan.
