Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill helps the rich and hurts the poor
By Tom Arms | London
Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill helps the rich and hurts the poor. And yet, Trump was elected by a demographic shift of poor voters to Republican ranks.
They voted for him not because they believe he supports the rich instead of them, but because they feel he speaks to their values, frustrations, and identity in ways that matter more to them than traditional economic policies.
Trump validates their worldview. He gives them someone to blame for their struggles. He channels their anger into a story where they are the true Americans under siege.
So how loyal is that base? Pretty loyal. For many supporters, Trump is not just a politician—he’s a symbol of resistance to liberal elites, political correctness, globalization, and a system they feel left them behind. He taps into identity, not just policy. That is a bond that runs deep.
So what could break that bond? Nothing less than a clear personal betrayal that his supporters could directly feel. The Big Beautiful Bill’s cuts in Medicaid are a step in that direction. And Democrats believe that they can use it to win back control of the House of Representatives and Senate in the 2026 mid-term elections.
But that will be hard road because Trump—and MAGA—are expert at blaming others such as Congress or the “deep state”.
Another possibility is if the Democrats could find a candidate that could channel the same emotions Trump does—anti-Establishment, tough-talking, outsider—but with fewer legal troubles and more discipline. Barack Obama had some of those qualities.
A national crisis could also do the trick and Trump’s tariffs and diplomacy and defense policies are headed that way. Inflation has risen half a percentage point in his first six months and the dollar has fallen ten percent. His planned tariffs will cause even more economic disruption. And if he manages to get rid of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the purchasing power of Americans will drop dramatically.
Trump’s dropping of the bunker-busting bombs on Iran won him high marks. The affair seems to be done and dusted. But it is too early to say that Trump’s bombs were the end of the matter. Iran could be biding its time and waiting for the opportunity which could still drag America into a “forever war” that Trump has promised to avoid.
Then there are health and environmental disasters. Trump has gutted the National Institute for Health and the Centre for Disease Control. He has done the same to the Federal Emergency Management Agency. If America faced another health crisis, hurricanes, floods or wildfires then it is less well-equipped to deal with them.
The reality, however, is that Trump’s hard core base is rock solid and represents 25-30 percent of the country. His broader coalition (another 10–15%) is more pragmatic and could shift, especially in swing suburbs, but only if the costs of loyalty start to outweigh the emotional or cultural benefits.
The good news is that unless Trump manages to change the constitution, he is leaving the White House in 3 and a half years. And he has no clear replacement. The MAGA movement is a personality cult, not a traditional ideology or party faction and cannot survive without him. A post-Trump GOP might face civil war between MAGA diehards and those eager to move on.
Movements built around one person often burn out. They feel unstoppable—until they’re not. And nothing is inevitable. Authoritarian trends can be reversed. They have been before.
Read: Observations of an Expat: Scary Thoughts
____________
Tom Arms is the foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He is also lectures on world affairs and is the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”
