Transatlantic relations have experienced numerous challenges throughout their history
Prof. Dr. Pervaiz Ali Mahesar
The 25th of February 2025 witnessed the war of words at the Oval Office in Washington, D.C., between American President Donald Trump and the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. During the conversation, Zelensky regretted its meeting with Donald Trump, while the latter said that the former is pushing for a third world war. However, this communication has never been seen in diplomatic history. Notably, the US and EU are the longest-serving allies (1947 to 2025). They have a long history, often de-hyphenated due to different approaches to trade, security, foreign policy, war, and peace in the world. This unfortunate episode in the middle of the Ukrainian war is not a good omen for peace and stability. Many scholars see this meeting as a precursor to the deepest rift in terms of ideology, trade, and security structure. The question is: how did transatlantic relations reach such a point of rupture, rift, or contention? In this piece, I attempt to answer this question.
What Went Wrong?
Transatlantic relations have experienced numerous challenges throughout their history, frequently depicted as a process of coupling and decoupling. Historically, rupture has been seen in several agreements in security, trade, environmental issues, and the EU’s desire to exercise strategic autonomy in global governance, trade, and defense. However, these difficult times might result in significant changes and could prompt the EU to become more autonomous in its decision-making. One of the experts on geopolitics and security studies, Linas Kojala, recalls that “as early as 1963, former U.S. president John F. Kennedy urged Europeans to take greater responsibility for their own defense. The same message has been repeated for decades; she is disappointed to know that “Europe has consistently ignored the warnings and failed to address its own vulnerabilities.” France, under the leadership of Charles de Gaulle, vetoed the UK’s entry into the EEC (1963 to 1967). They were concerned that the US might exert influence over the UK’s entry. This realization marked the first instance of mistrust or fear of American influence in the EU’s affairs. In this way, several precedents or events shaped the transatlantic rift. For instance, the cancellation of the Bretton Woods system in 1971 showed that Europe wanted to pursue its strategic autonomy in terms of trade and security. In the wake of this decision, the EU was successful in launching its currency in 1999. In this way, Brussels strengthened its regulatory framework and increased its economic independence in response to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.
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These financial crises were due to American market failure. In line with this, a conflict over green subsidies (Inflation Reduction Act, 2022) launched by the US emerged as a persistent dilemma in their relations. Neither country was in agreement with the operational management or the procedure of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. However, two major EU countries, France and Germany, strongly opposed the Iraq war. Furthermore, they were unaware of America’s hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021. This step equally surprised EU countries, and their apprehensions were further intensified when America withdrew from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017, rejected the Kyoto Protocol in 2001, and made questionable an Iranian Nuclear Deal by withdrawing from the nuclear deal in 2015. In addition to this, Trump’s idea for making America great again adopted a policy of “America First” in 2017.
This step pushed American leadership to impose more sanctions and trade tariffs on its adversaries. As succinctly expressed by Dr. John Calabrese, who is an expert on international relations and teaches at American University, Washington, D.C., “If the current trend toward strategic retrenchment and unilateral coercion continues, the transatlantic relationship will likely be redefined along new, less interdependent lines. He concludes that “the future of the transatlantic relationship hinges on Europe’s ability to adapt to a changing geopolitical environment while safeguarding its core values.” Apart from these geopolitical de-couplings, the trade statistics show that Americans import more from Europe and export less to Europe. For instance. In 2024, American total trade with the EU amounted to $975.9 billion, while American imports from the EU totalled $605.8 billion, and its exports to the EU were counted as $370.2 billion. Hence, the trade deficit with the EU totalled $235.6 billion. Consequently, the increasing dilemma of the trade deficit with the EU adds to the American frustration.
What needs to be done?
Since decades, the rupture in EU-US relations is deeply rooted in the history and ideological orientations. However, the current war of words between two presidents reflected their different approaches in resolving issues. These profound changes in transatlantic relations, have shaped their convergence and divergence in their history. Other than this, the Iraq War, financial instability, climate agreements, economic and defense domains have all posed challenges to the alliance. These events have frequently compelled the EU to pursue greater economic and geopolitical autonomy. The United States and the European Union might remain united in spite of obstacles, as they are united by trade, security, and shared democratic principles. At the same time, the EU should continue to maintain its status as a significant global actor. The future relationships are expected to balance the expansion of European autonomy in international affairs with the pursuit of shared solutions. Kristi Raik, Director of the International Centre for Defense and Security, Tallinn, observed that, “real autonomy cannot be built with words only; Europe needs real military capability and of course political will, too, to stop Russian aggression. She recalls that “for the past three years, Europe has behaved as if it were in a bad dream, expecting to wake up and get back to normalcy. It has failed to take its destiny into its own hands. She warns that “if it doesn’t do so now, its fate may be decided by other, stronger and darker forces.”
In order to build bridges, both the countries need to take a holistic approach. It should include: first, intensifying diplomatic engagement; second, strengthening and fortifying economic cooperation; third, prioritize their defense and security issues; fourth, complete their energy and climate policy gaps; and fifth, institutionalize their crisis mechanisms. By following this strategy, both the parties could resolve their differences before the situation escalates.
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Dr. Pervaiz Ali Mahesar is Associate Professor at the Department of Political Science, University of Sindh Jamshoro
Dr. Pervaiz Ali Mahesar has provided a deeply insightful and well-researched analysis of transatlantic relations, offering a compelling perspective on the challenges and future of EU-US dynamics.