Climate Crisis

A Call for Change

November 14, 2024

141

By adopting anticipatory action as a national strategy, the country can mitigate the devastating impacts of disasters and protect its most vulnerable populations

Zaheer Udin Babar Junejo

Earlier this week, I had the privilege of attending a public-private dialogue and the launch of a report on Disaster Risk Finance and Anticipatory Action in Pakistan. This significant event, held over three days in Karachi, brought together a diverse range of participants, including government representatives from relevant departments, UN agencies, international non-governmental organizations (INGOs), and local civil society groups. The discussions centered on the evolving approach to disaster preparedness in Pakistan, informed by past experiences and the increasing intensity of climate-induced calamities. Since the devastating earthquake of 2005 and the catastrophic floods of 2010, Pakistan has made notable strides in disaster risk reduction (DRR). Community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) approaches became integral to the nation’s response framework, empowering local communities to mitigate risks and enhance resilience. However, the dialogue in Karachi marked a shift towards anticipatory action, a forward-thinking approach tailored to respond to forecasted disasters by acting well before their onset. This strategy focuses on minimizing losses through early interventions, using precise forecasts to guide the scale and scope of actions. Reflecting on the lessons from past disasters, particularly the floods of 2022, the increasing frequency of heatwaves, prolonged droughts, and intensified cyclonic activities, it became evident that anticipatory action offers a more proactive and cost-effective method to mitigate disaster impacts. During the discussions, many participants realized that they had unknowingly been practicing elements of anticipatory action but were unaware of the science and logic behind the approach. This lack of structured understanding has led to fragmented efforts, duplication of resources, and missed opportunities for collaboration.

With the right policies and partnerships in place, Pakistan can lead the way in building a more resilient and sustainable future

A critical takeaway was the recognition of the immense financial resources being funneled into social safety net programs. These programs aim to assist the most vulnerable populations, yet their effectiveness is often hampered by a lack of coordination and trust among stakeholders. The absence of a unified framework forces actors to “reinvent the wheel” in every disaster scenario, resulting in inefficiencies and delayed responses. One recurring theme during the dialogue was the limited institutional learning within public service sectors. Unlike humanitarian actors who are flexible and regularly refine their approaches based on lessons learned and emerging trends, public institutions in Pakistan often rely on a “learning by doing” approach. This reactive stance was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic and the response to the 2022 floods. There is an urgent need to bridge this gap by institutionalizing anticipatory action frameworks within government structures.

For anticipatory action to become a national standard, the government and donor agencies must take bold steps to pool resources, adopt disaster risk financing mechanisms, and allocate funds across all levels—national, provincial, and grassroots. This requires the development of a National Anticipatory Action Protocol, which clearly defines hazards and hotspots, their triggering mechanisms, responsible authorities, and appropriate solutions. Such protocol would ensure a cohesive and coordinated response, preventing the fragmentation that has plagued past efforts. One of the most pressing challenges in implementing anticipatory action is the availability of financial resources. With conflicts and climate change exerting pressure on global funding envelopes, governments must track, trace, and align their social safety funding with anticipatory action goals. Disaster risk financing provides a viable solution by enabling pre-allocated funds to be disbursed quickly and efficiently when forecasted triggers are met. This approach minimizes delays and ensures that resources reach vulnerable populations promptly.

For anticipatory action to become a national standard, the government and donor agencies must take bold steps to pool resources, adopt disaster risk financing mechanisms, and allocate funds across all levels—national, provincial, and grassroots

Institutionalizing anticipatory action also requires sustained financial contributions to build, fuel, innovative as well scale up tested models. The integration of these models into existing social safety net programs could enhance their effectiveness and ensure that resources are used optimally. For this to happen, the government must prioritize capacity building, invest in data-driven decision-making tools, and foster partnerships with humanitarian actors and the private sector. The dialogue underscored the importance of collaboration and shared learning among stakeholders. It became clear that no single entity can address the complex challenges posed by disasters in isolation. The success of anticipatory action hinges on the collective efforts of government institutions, donor agencies, humanitarian organizations, and local communities. By working together, these actors can develop innovative solutions, streamline coordination, and build trust.

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The discussions also highlighted the need for robust monitoring and evaluation systems to assess the impact of anticipatory actions. Such systems would enable stakeholders to identify gaps, refine strategies, and ensure accountability. Moreover, the inclusion of local knowledge and perspectives in decision-making processes was emphasized as a key factor in ensuring the relevance and sustainability of interventions. As Pakistan grapples with the dual challenges of climate change and limited funding, anticipatory action offers a promising pathway to reduce disaster risks and enhance resilience. However, its successful implementation requires a paradigm shift in how accurate and onetime and properly communicated advisories are issued by metrology authorities and how disasters are perceived and addressed by public as well as private humanitarian actors. The government must move away from a reactive approach and embrace proactive strategies that prioritize prevention and preparedness.

As a student in this sector I believe the following actions are essential:

Establish a comprehensive framework that outlines the roles, responsibilities, and coordination mechanisms for all stakeholders involved in disaster risk management.
The policy corridors must mobilize resources to fund anticipatory actions and integrate disaster risk financing mechanisms into federal and provincial policies and budgets.
Invest and prioritize in training and capacity-building programs for the public as well for private sector actors to institutionalize anticipatory action as a core component of disaster preparedness.
Encourage thematic workings groups and build partnerships between government agencies, humanitarian organizations, and the private sector to leverage expertise and resources.
Improve the current method of data privacy and pool up all data at the NDMA level, provide unconditional access among trusted stakeholders, and utilize technology and data-driven tools to improve forecasting, early warning systems, and decision-making processes.
Ensure that local knowledge and perspectives are incorporated into anticipatory action plans to enhance their relevance and effectiveness.

The dialogue and report launch in Karachi served as a timely reminder of the need to rethink disaster preparedness in Pakistan. By adopting anticipatory action as a national strategy, the country can mitigate the devastating impacts of disasters and protect its most vulnerable populations. This requires not only financial investments but also a commitment to collaboration, innovation, and learning. With the right policies and partnerships in place, Pakistan can lead the way in building a more resilient and sustainable future.