Observations of an Expat: Gaza Ceasefire

0
135
77747076007-20250115-t-183036-z-1164480923-rc-2-iacaux-9-dn-rtrmadp-3-israelpalestiniansgaza

The people were celebrating Gaza Ceasefire when the Israeli bombs started to fall again killing 110 more Palestinians

By Tom Arms

They were celebrating in Gaza City when the ceasefire was announced on Wednesday. Men, women and children ran into the streets to shout, cry and pray.

Then the Israeli bombs started to fall again. 110 more Palestinians died. Shortly afterwards it was announced that a last-minute hiccup had delayed Israeli cabinet approval. Will the ceasefire hold?

The deal is the result of constant 24/7 negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the US. The bones of the agreement were announced by Biden in May. Benjamin Netanyahu, however, rejected it at the time.

2d68f410-d3e1-11ef-a305-1f7b3341a92d BBC
BBC Photo
Read: Israeli security cabinet approves ceasefire deal

Donald Trump and Joe Biden can both take a share of the credit. Biden for negotiating the deal and winning UN backing. Trump for saying he would back what Biden parleyed. It was a rare moment of cross-party foreign policy-making and undercut Netanyahu’s hopes of a better agreement from Donald Trump.

The ceasefire itself is in three clear phases. Phase one is due to start on Sunday and last six weeks. It involves the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces; an increased flow of humanitarian aid and the release of some Palestinian prisoners.

Phase two—also six weeks long—calls for the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza. The return of all remaining live hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners and “the return to a sustainable calm.”

Phase three is the start of the reconstruction of Gaza. The return of the bodies of an estimated 32 dead hostages and the release of more Palestinian prisoners. The US, Egypt and Qatar are all committed to ensuring that both sides comply and that the ceasefire goes well beyond the first few months and becomes the basis of further agreements.

But there are a host of hurdles at which ceasefire could fall. Possibly the biggest is opposition from the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Ben Smotrich. He has said he would vote against the ceasefire unless there is a clear commitment to resume fighting once all the hostages are released. He said: “Our continued presence in the government depends on the absolute certainty of resuming the war with full force.”

0b18d980-d296-11ef-87df-d575b9a434a4.jpg
BBC Photo
Read: What is in the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas?

Ben Smotrich is backed by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. But the two men do not have enough cabinet votes to stop cabinet passage of the ceasefire agreement. However, they have also threatened to withdraw their support from Netanyahu which would collapse the government and force an election

This would likely spell political disaster for Israel’s long-serving prime minister. The voters hold him responsible for the security lapses that led to the Hamas attack and the Gaza War. And if he is voted out of office Netanyahu faces a series of fraud trials and prison time if found guilty.

Then there are the Palestinian prisoners. The agreement does not specify which or how many prisoners will be released. Under Israeli law any Israeli citizen has a 48 hour window in which to appeal against the release of anyone jailed for terrorist offenses. A delay in the release of Palestinians could lead to the delay of the release of hostages which would be a casus belli that the Israeli far-right seeks to continue the fighting.

Don’t forget the West Bank. It has been largely forgotten by a Gaza disaster which has left more than 47,000 dead. But while the world was distracted, Israeli settles saw their opportunity and confiscated more land in 15 months then they have in the past 20 years.

On Thursday, Defence Minister, Israel Katz ordered the release of West Bank Israeli settlers arrested for attacks on Palestinians. He said: “I want to convey a clear message of strengthening and encouraging West Bank settlement.” The future of the West Bank is no part of the current agreement.

Neither is there any mention of the two-state solution or any form of self-determination for the Palestinians. Netanyahu has adamantly ruled out the two-state solution and demanded the annexation of the West Bank.

The US Republican Party appears to be splitting on the issue. Trump has said in the past that he opposes the two-state solution and supports annexation. But one of his key supporters, Senator Lindsey Graham, recently said that the holy grail of diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will not happen without “some form of a two-state solution.” He added: “They (the Saudis) cannot normalize relations if they are seen as throwing the Palestinians under the bus.”

Senator Graham’s remarks represent an evolving shift in American and wider Western public opinion. The guilt of the Holocaust fades with each passing year. The generation of today and tomorrow is more focused on the genocide of Gaza.

Polls show that the Israeli public are aware and worried about their growing status as a pariah state. They don’t like it. It is important to them to be part of the wider world—especially the Western world. But at the same time they want security and fear that a two-state solution would only result in an established hostile Palestinian state perpetually poised on their border. As the new Hamas leader, Khalil al-Haya, said when the ceasefire was announced: “We will not forget. We will not forgive.”

Ben Smotrich and Co. argue that only the death of every Hamas fighter and the total dismantlement of their governing apparatus will result in the necessary security. But as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, recently said: “For every Hamas fighter that is killed ten more spring up to take their place. The goal of total dismantlement is ephemeral and will only lead to constant insurgency and perpetual war.”

The ceasefire agreement is flawed. It is incomplete. It is peppered with loopholes, complications, unresolved details and an absence of political will. It is best a shaky start. It is also the best achievable in the circumstances.

World-ReviewWorld Review

Trump’s run of good luck continues. It seems likely that all but one of his cabinet nominations will be confirmed by the Senate. Congressman Matt Gaetz was the longest of long shots for Attorney General. The Ethics Committee investigation into his drug-fuelled sex antics ruled him out.

Fox News presenter Pete Hesgeth was also expected to fail in his bid to become America’s next Secretary of Defense. A seedy past and lack of experience worked against him. But Hesgeth put up a good show against tough questioning from the Democratic members of the Senate Armed Services Committee. There is nothing the Republican senators like more than a conservative who successfully fights his corner. He is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday.

The same with Pam Bondi who replaced Matt Gaetz as Trump’s choice for Attorney General. Ms. Bondi sort of mollified senators when she denied that there was a “enemies list” compiled of people Trump wants prosecuted. But she then qualified this by refusing to rule out taking action against Jack Smith, the Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate the president-elect.

Smith, for his part, is clearly angry that he will not be able to drag Donald Trump into court. This week he released a partially redacted set of documents which clearly stated that if Trump had not been elected president he would be seeing his tailor for an orange onesie. The documents claimed that Trump was guilty of election interference, disrupting an official proceeding of Congress, stealing and hiding classified documents and, almost certainly, trying to overthrow the US government.

Jack Smith is, according to FBI nominee, Kash Patel, at the top of his “enemies list”. Patel has yet to be questioned by a Senate Committee, but he has publicly said that there is an enemy list. Patel, however, will be reporting to Pam Bondi.

Trump meanwhile has insisted that there is a “patriot’s list.” That is an unidentified number of people who were prosecuted for invading the Capitol Building on January 6, 2020. He has promised that he will pardon them. He does not need the assistance of Patel or Bondi to do so. He just needs a pen and paper.

______________________________

They call it hybrid warfare. Russia is becoming a master practitioner across Europe and beyond. It involves, misinformation campaigns, cyberattacks espionage and sabotage of military facilities and critical infrastructure, damaging undersea pipelines and electricity cables and interfering in democratic elections.

This week Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that the Russians were even plotting to blow up airliners, “not just against Poland, but against airlines across the globe,” he insisted.

Meanwhile the German government this week ordered police and the air force to shoot down the growing number of drones flying over German and American military bases and critical infrastructure. The Interior Minister said they were suspected of sabotage and espionage.

But the most disturbing incidents have involved undersea cables and pipelines in the Baltic. They carry gas supplies, electricity, 95 percent of the internet traffic and $10 trillion worth of annual financial transactions.

On December 26 the Finnish Coast Guard boarded and seized the Russian oil tanker Eagle S which was part of Russia’s shadow fleet of sanctions-busting tankers. The ship had been dragging its anchor along the seabed cutting the 106-mile power cable linking Estonia and Finland. The damage will take months to repair. The Eagle S was also carrying Russian spy equipment and had previously been spotted dropping surveillance sensors in the English Channel.

This was not the first incident. There have been an increasing number of reports of mutilation to the network of cables crisscrossing the bed of the Baltic Sea. The Estonian Interior Minister said there were many reasons to be attributed to accidents. The prime culprits are the 17 Russian shadow oil tankers that transit the Baltic every day. Chinese vessels are also suspected.

NATO has responded to the threat by increasing surveillance of the Baltic with warships, aircraft and drones. They have dubbed the operation “Baltic Sentry.”

So far, NATO countries have been reluctant to categorically accuse Russia. The Kremlin, of course, denies any involvement.

_____________________________

India is reaching out to the Taliban. This week Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri turned up in Dubai for surprise talks with the Taliban’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi.

The meeting represents a near 180-degree shift in Indian relations with the Taliban. Delhi was a major supporter of the Western-backed governments in Kabul. During the 20-years that the Taliban were out of power, India invested more than $3 billion in over 500 projects. These included roads, power lines, dams, hospitals, thousands of scholarships and even a new parliament building.

The developments created a large well of goodwill towards India among the general Afghan populace which the Indian government is reluctant to write off.

But there are also geopolitical factors at play. Delhi has been increasingly worried about the diplomatic and commercial inroads that its regional rivals—Pakistan and China—have been able to make since the Taliban returned to power three years ago. Especially China which has the only ambassador in Kabul.

c6.730x0Read: India becomes Taliban’s ‘significant regional partner’

Delhi is also desperate to gain access to the markets of Central Asia which at the moment are blocked by Pakistan.

The plan is to route trade through the port of Chabatar at the entrance to the Persian Gulf and then move it by rail through Iran and Afghanistan to Central Asia. The Shah of Iran started building Chabatar but problems caused by US-led sanctions led to it being taken over by India in 2018.

Routing more trade with Chabatar would also benefit landlocked Afghanistan which at the moment is almost completely dependent on Pakistan for its access to the outside world.

Normally this would not bother the Taliban, but over the past three years Afghan-Pakistan relations have substantially deteriorated. A major cause of the deterioration is terrorist attacks by the Pakistan-Taliban on Indian targets from bases in Afghanistan. Last July Pakistan Defence Minister Khawaja Asif ordered increased attacks on the Taliban bases. As a result dozens of Afghan civilians have died as a result of Pakistani air strikes.

Another advantage for the Taliban is a form of recognition from a major international player. After three years not a single country has formally recognized the Taliban government, although 40 countries have some form of diplomatic contact. India is currently represented by a single relatively junior diplomat.

There are, however, substantial risks for India. Does it want to strengthen ties with an Islamic fundamentalist government whose values are in direct conflict with their own, has close links with international terror groups and has done nothing to reform its medieval policies?

ReadObservations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole

__________________

Tom Arms Journalist Sindh Courier
Tom Arms

Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice. He is also the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”

LEAVE A REPLY

Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here