Which mole will need whacking next? The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole.
By Tom Arms
The Middle East is very much like the fairground game whack-a-mole. You think you have solved your problems by knocking a mole on the head and another one of the pesky beasts pops up on the other side of the board.
Just as Israel and Washington thought they had Hezbollah and Iran on the back foot, an Islamic fundamentalist group has popped up to threaten Syria’s Assad regime. And, of course, the Gazan mole still has its head above the parapets—just.
The temptation is to raise a cheer for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Muhammad Al-Jolani. They are, after all, now the main threat to the regime of Basahar-al Assad, one of the regime’s most brutal anti-Western dictators. They also pose the biggest danger to Russian and Iranian influence in the region.
But HTS are an internationally proscribed terrorist organization with a reputation for brutal repression. They also want to create an Islamic state within Syria. The last thing the Middle East needs is another religiously-based government which derives its legitimacy from its relationship with an infallible Higher Being.
So, who is HTS and its leader? Why have they suddenly leapt into the world’s headlines? And, finally, what are their chances of toppling the Assad regime?
Al-Jolani himself is a shadowy figure. Even his birth date is unknown, although he is believed to be in his mid-forties and hails from Damascus where his parents still live. When the Syrian Civil War started with the 2011 Arab Spring, Al Jolani was associated with the Jihadist group Al Nusra which was the main Islamic opposition group opposing Assad in Aleppo and Syria’s northern Idlib region.
Al Nusra was initially affiliated with Al Qaeeda and Islamic State. But then in 2016, Al-Jolani broke with Al Qaeeda and IS and formed HTS. In 2019 he gave a rare interview to Al Jazeera in which Al-Jolani said he was no longer interested in fighting for world or even regional Jihad. Instead, HTS would focus on creating an Islamic state in Syria.
A year later, 2020, saw the Astana Accords which established an uneasy truce between Iran which, along with the Kurds of the Syrian Democratic Front, held sway in northeast Syria; the Turks whose troops dominated in northwest Syria and the Russians. Assad, much to the Russians annoyance, refused to sign up, but neither did he actively oppose the accords
The Result was an uneasy peace in northern Syria which allowed HTS—which was based in Idlib—to develop a modus operandi with both Turkey and the Kurds and gradually establish their own Sunni-dominated administration. Within a few years HTS was running hospitals, schools, building roads and even established a military training college. Its successful governance allowed it to collect taxes, a big chunk of which went on re-arming with missiles and drones.
HTS may have carried on carving a successful state out of a state if not for the Ukraine War and Hezbollah’s defeat in Lebanon. The former meant that Russia was forced to withdraw many of the troops which had been supporting Assad since 2015, including its S-300 missile systems.
Read: Israel And Hamas Play Whack-A-Mole – Analysis
But Assad could still count on Hezbollah and Iran. 10,000 Hezbollah fighters have played a key role in supporting Assad’s mainly conscript army. They have been financed by Iran who has supplied 5,000 troops from its elite Quds force as well as substantial, political, economic and logistic support. Iran has supported Assad because it needs his territory to maintain supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon and because Assad is an Alawite. The Alawites are a Shia sect which comprise only about 15 percent of the Syrian population, but they control the political and economic levers. The country is 70 percent Sunni. The remaining 15 percent are mainly Druze, Christians and Jews.
The defeat of Hezbollah in Lebanon diminished both the fighting power of Hezbollah in Syria and Iran’s need to maintain a supply line through Syria. At the same time, Turkey has been pushing refugees back into the HTS-controlled areas and Russia continued to reinforce its Ukrainian operations.
A window of attack opportunity opened for Al-Jolani and HTS. They took it. They surprised themselves and the world by capturing Aleppo—Syria’s largest and most industrialized city—in just four days. It took Assad four years.
Read – Observations of an Expat: Middle East Consequences
So what happens now? Clearly al-Jolani wants to replace Assad in Damascus. Can he do that on his own? HTS is still a proscribed terrorist organization. How desperate is Assad? Will he again resort to chemical weapons? What would be the reaction of the international community if he does? What about the Russians? Will they rush to Assad’s aid? They are peeved at his refusal to improve relations with Turkey and are tied down in Ukraine, but their wider influence in the Middle East depends on keeping Assad in power. And then there is Iran and Hezbollah, both of whom are angry that Assad did not do more to support Hezbollah in Lebanon and are themselves being forced into a retrenchment exercise.
In short, which mole will need whacking next?
World Review
Europe is in political turmoil. The governments of the EU’s ideological and economic engines—France and Germany respectively—have collapsed.
Meanwhile Russia is advancing in the East and in the West Trump is retreating with a tariff-infested isolationist America First policy. To complicate matters further, Trump himself is unlikely to keep quiet when he visits France this weekend for the all-star reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral.
At the heart of France’s problem is a three-way polarization of French politics and a long-standing government tendency to pay more than it has. The center-right guru of compromise, Michel Barnier was appointed Prime Minister, after parliamentary elections in the summer.
He failed to resolve either problem, a vote of no confidence brought about the collapse of his government on Wednesday. New parliamentary elections are the obvious answer. The problem is that under the constitution of the Fifth Republic there must be a gap of 12 months between National Assembly elections.
Read – Budget crisis and political turmoil: France under EU’s close watch
Which opens the question of whether President Emmanuel Macron himself should resign. So far, he has refused to consider it.
In the background is the fate of far-right National Rally (RN) leader Marine Le Pen who is facing a five-year ban from politics for mis-use of EU funds. This would bar her from running for the presidency unless….Macron resigns. If he does presidential elections must be held within 30 days and Le Pen is rescued from the political wilderness.
Meanwhile, in Germany, Olof Scholz has failed to hold together his traffic-light coalition and called elections for February next year. The projected winners are this stage are the CDU/CSU coalition led by 69-year-old Friedrich Merz. Merz is pretty standard far-right. He is pro-EU, anti-Russian and pro-Ukraine.
The fly in the German electoral ointment is the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) which is pro-Russian, anti-EU anti-Ukraine and vehemently anti-immigration. The AfD has been rising rapidly in the political stakes. It is based mainly in the former German Democratic Republic and is unlikely to win a majority, but it could end up the second biggest party in the Bundestag.
The problem is that the AfD is toxic. None of the established parties will form a coalition with it. Which means that the outcome is likely to be another shaky coalition just when Germany needs strong government. Not only is their threat of Russia, but the economy is in the doldrums as a result of its inability to compete with Chinese and American electric vehicles.
Its export problems are soon to be worsened by Trump’s tariffs. This in turn could drag East European economies from relative growth into recession. This in turn could increase its Euro-sceptic, pro-Russian leaders to turn away from the democratic institutions of the EU towards the more autocratic Russians and Chinese.
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It’s official—American’s legal system has been politicized and weaponised. Joe Biden’s decision to pardon his son Hunter was the final piece in this unfortunate jigsaw puzzle.
Some claim that America’s rule of law has already been hopelessly compromised. Either by years of corruption, questionable litiginous claims, a bloated legal profession, Donald Trump’s contempt for the law and Democrats’ use of the law to attack Trump.
It is true that New York’s conviction of Trump on business-related felony charges was questionable. Yes, he was guilty. But would he have been charged if he had not been Trump?
The Georgia state prosecution, and the two federal prosecutions—one of disappearing documents and the other for alleged insurrection—are of a much more serious nature. They involve nothing less than treason. With Trump’s election they will simply… disappear.
The allegations against Trump are certainly much, much more damaging to the country than the crimes of Hunter Biden: tax evasion and lying on his application for a gun license.
President Biden made a point of projecting himself as the saviour of the rule of law. He distanced himself from federal prosecutor Jack Smith and refused to protect Hunter. “I will not pardon my son,” he said. Then he did.
Biden supporters say he was forced to issue the pardon by Trump’s threats to weaponise the FBI and Department of Justice to attack his political enemies, including the “Biden crime family.” Regardless of the reason, the saviour of the rule of law, has ended up by adding a fresh coat of tarnish to the “shining city on the hill.”
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“The Coup that Backfired”—could be the title of the future film of this week’s political events in South Korea.
It started at 10pm on Tuesday when President Yoon Suk-yeol interrupted broadcasts to announce that he was declaring martial law. The country, he said, was under imminent threat of attack from communist North Korea. Following North Korean missile tests and the Putin-Kim bromance, the threat seemed all too plausible, especially for those born before the end of military rule 44 years ago.
But as night turned to early morning and early morning turned to dawn, deeper domestic political considerations emerged as playing a bigger role. The president’s approval rating had slumped to 16 percent. His reputation has been especially damaged by the activities of his wife Kim Keon-hee who is being investigated for a number of scandals involving stock market manipulation, tax evasion, ethics violations and failing to declare luxury gifts.
There have also been unsubstantiated claims about a murky private life linked to her penchant for plastic surgery. South Korea, by the way, is tied with Colombia for the title of the most surgically-enhanced population.
Wifely scandals have been exacerbated by a deep polarization within South Korean politics that mirrors its American backers. President Yoon is from the conservative People’s Power Party (PPP). but the unicameral legislature (aka Gukhoe) is dominated by the left-leaning Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). This was the party led by the former president Moon Jae-in.
The idea that the martial law declaration had more to do with domestic than foreign threats gained credence when Washington and Tokyo denied any knowledge of an imminent attack from the north. On top of that, President Yoon, then elaborated on his original declaration that there was also a threat from “an enemy from within”—i.e., the opposition.
Said Opposition refused to accept the martial law declaration. 190 legislators– enough for a majority—managed to break past military guards to enter the national assembly building and force the president to reverse his declaration. President Yoon now faces impeachment.
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The Republic of Ireland (Eire) has bucked the worldwide trend and voted for more of the same.
Rivals Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have once again come out on top on a low turn-out (57 percent). Neither party, however, have secured an outright majority. The election followed a coalition involving both parties. That will be repeated, but without the support of the Green Party who dropped to just one seat in the Dail (parliament).
Their most likely partner this time around is the Labour Party. Simon Harris, leader of Fine Gael is expected to continue as Taoiseach (prime minister).
The biggest losers of the night were Sinn Fein who were hindered by being a single-issue party: unification. The issue remains high on the discussion agenda for most Irish, just not at election time. The result was that Sinn Fein—which had been billed as a government-in-waiting—dropped to 19 percent of the vote and 39 seats.
For most voters the two main issues were the economy and immigration. The former is a potential future problem for whomever heads the next Irish government. The country has enjoyed a period of prosperity thanks to low corporate taxes drawing in big-name American multinationals. This policy will be severely tested if Donald Trump goes ahead with promised tariffs and corporate tax cuts.
Read- Observations of an Expat: Fentanyl
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Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”
