The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond
By Tom Arms
The Syrian butterfly has flapped its wings and created a political storm throughout the region and well beyond.
Russia has lost a Middle East foothold and global credibility but gained troops for its war in Ukraine. Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” has been reduced to dust. Hezollah has been cut off from its supplier.
All the Arab states will be pleased that the Persians have been humbled but will be worried that they have been backed into the nuclear corner.
China may be casting a covetous eye over the vacuum left by a weakened Russia in Central Asia, Middle East and the south Caucasus. Joe Biden sees an “historic opportunity.” Donald Trump sees an exit.
Read: Assad flees to Moscow after rebels take Syrian capital
Israel sees an opportunity to expand its territory and influence, and a chance to remove both Iran and Syria as major foes.
Western intelligence chiefs have expressed concerns about an upsurge of Islamic violence in the West. Those fleeing Hayat Tahrir al- Sham (HTS) may increase the number of refugees heading West. But then the millions in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey and Europe may more than balance the books by starting a Great Return.
Turkey is chuffed that the organization which they sheltered, HTS, in northwest Syria may now rule the rest of the country. This could increase their foothold in 100 square kilometers of Syrian territory and their suppression of Kurdish rebels. The Kurds are worried about the Turks, as are their Israeli and American backers.
A great deal of the above hinges on what follows Bashar al-Assad. Will HTS emerge as the new ruling power in Syria with Abu Mohammed Al-Jolani as its leader? Or will Syria collapse into a feuding patchwork as different factions exploit the political vacuum to vy for power and settle scores piled high during a 13-year-long civil war.
Another big question is the democratic vs Islamic credentials of HTS. It is still proscribed by the UN, US and EU as a terrorist organization. Its political roots lie with ISIS and Al Qaeeda but much has been made of its leadership’s olive branches to Christians, Druze and different tribal factions. The real nature of the HTS has yet to be determined. But Al-Jolani declared this week in the 8th century Umyyad Mosque: “I don’t want to fight anyone.”
Israel, is taking no chances. In the past week it has conducted more than 400 military strikes against the Syrian army, navy and air force “so that they will not fall into the hands of the Jihadists,” declared Prime Minister Benjamiin Netanyahu. An additional issue is that prominent Israeli fundamentalists speak of an Erez Israel which stretches from the Suez to the Euphrates–swallowing all of Syria.
The string of bases that linked Hezbollah in Lebanon to supply bases in Iran—the “Axis of Resistance” is no more and Al-Jolani has declared he wants all Iranians out of Syria. The only proxy the Iranians have left in the Middle East are the Houthis in Yemen. With Supreme Leader Ali Khameini in his 85th year, the country also faces a succession crisis and the continuing problem of sanctions and a cosmopolitan urban population chafing under religious rule.
This exposes Iran as a possible paper tiger and may encourage Israel—as possibly American hawks—to strike before Tehran has an opportunity to regroup. Alternatively, some believe that incoming President Trump may take advantage of a weakened Iran to strike a deal. While still others, worry that Tehran could be only weeks away from a nuclear weapon.
It is difficult to say whether Russia or Iran are the biggest losers (other than Assad, of course). The Russians this week abandoned their naval base at Tartus and their airbase in Hmeimin. Russia’s world strategy relies on its ability to project power globally on several fronts. The Middle East is at the center of the geopolitical globe and Syria is at the center of the Middle East.
Moscow’s Tartus base allowed it to project a naval presence throughout the Mediterranean. Its airbase was used to forward troops to Sudan, Libya and the Sahel region as well as for carpet bombing Syrian rebels.
Some Russian troops may be freed up for the Ukraine War. But one of the reasons for the rapid fall of Assad was that most of the Russian forces in Syria had already been withdrawn for the battle against Kyiv. Donald Trump appears to believe that Russia’s failure in Syria could make it more likely to sue for peace in Ukraine.
Then there is the potential economic fall-out. Russia’s Syrian presence enhanced its position with the Arab-dominated OPEC countries. That position is inevitably weakened at a time when Moscow is increasingly dependent on oil revenues.
Read – Observations of an Expat: Middle East Whack-a-Mole
Turkey is the biggest winner. It will now be harder than ever to dislodge from the estimated 100 towns and villages it occupies in northwest Syria. Three million refugees are already starting to return home and Turkey this week opened additional border crossings, as did Lebanon and Jordan. Turkish-support for HTS means that it is well-placed to financially benefit from the rebuilding of Syria. The Turkish lira is already the dominant currency.
All the above are just some of the effects of the flapping Syrian butterfly. Effects that will be felt for years to come.
World Review
Trump clashed with FBI director Christopher Wray from the start. So much so that he didn’t bother to turn up for his swearing-in ceremony in 2017.
Wray led the investigation into Russian collusion; refused to condemn his agents as products of the “deep state”; attacked the January 6 riots as “domestic terrorism” and started the probe into the Mar-a-lago documents case.
When Wray refused to do as ordered during the George Floyd riots, Trump tried to fire him. He was blocked by the Attorney General. “Over my dead body,” said Bill Barr.
This week Wray bowed to the inevitable and resigned three years before his term of office was due to expire. Trump and his MAGA-supporting Republican claimed that even though Trump appointed him, Wray was weaponisng America’s federal law enforcement agency against him.
Kash Patel—the man who Trump wants to replace Wray—has served notice that that he wants to weaponise the FBI in the service of President Trump.
Patel is the fiercest of fierce critics of the FBI and the Department of Justice. The title of his book about the bureau speaks volumes: “Government Gangsters.”
In it he calls for the “eradication of government the tyrant” within the FBI by firing the top ranks.” More recently he has said that he wants to sack all but 50 of the agents in the bureau’s Washington office, which employs the bulk of the FBI’s 37,000 employees.
Read – Observations of an Expat: One Down
Patel is known for his blind loyalty the president-elect in a variety of offices ranging from the Pentagon, to the Department of Justice, to the National Security Council and various campaign positions. He does, however, break with a long-standing tradition of never having served in a senior position in the FBI.
Patel has promised Trump’s opponents: “We’re coming after the people in the media and the courts and the civil service and congress who have lied to American citizens; who helped Joe Biden to rig presidential elections…. We’re going to come after you whether it’s criminally or civilly. We’ll figure that out. But, yeah, we’re putting you all on notice.”
Kash Patel still has to be confirmed by the Senate. That confirmation is not a foregone conclusion, but It is becoming increasingly difficult for The Republican majority to keep rejecting Trump’s nominees.
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The master of the insult—Donald J. Trump—has struck again. This time his target is Canada and all things Canadian.
After meeting at Mar-a-lago with Justin Trudeau, the president-elect, said: “It was a pleasure to have dinner the other night with Governor Justin Trudeau of the great state of Canada.”
If it is one thing that Canadians are sensitive about it is their relationship with the United States. They know that they play second fiddle on the North American continent and they hate being reminded of it.
The at times sensitive relationship has its roots in the foundation stories of the two countries and a not always easy relationship over the past 250 years.
Canada’s identity is to a large degree determined by the fact that it is decidedly NOT the United States and, from the start, has pointedly refused all attempts to make it part of America. When the 13 colonies broke away in 1776 they invited Canada to join its rebellion. It refused and when the fighting ended tens of thousands of American Tories fled north to become the nucleus of English-speaking Canada.
In the aftermath of the American Revolution, Canada held onto big chunks of present-day Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Ohio in lieu of American debts owed to Britain. Maine did not become an American state until 1842 and only after the two countries nearly came to blows in the Arostook War.
During the War of 1812 the United States refused to believe Canadians didn’t want to be American and invaded as part of an annexation attempt. Britain’s burning of Washington DC and the White House was in retaliation for the American invasion. To this day, many Canadian historians argue that they won the War of 1812.
During the American Civil War there was a strong Canadian sentiment in favour of the Confederate cause. This was despite the fact that Canadians sheltered runaway slaves after slavery was banned in the British Empire in 1833.
Border disputes continue between the two countries. The last one was resolved in 2006. There are still residual hard feelings in Canada that it took the US three years to enter the First World War and two years the Second.
Even during relatively modern times, US-Canadian relations plunged when Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre, provided political asylum to young Americans fleeing conscription during the Vietnam War. President Nixon responded by slapping a ten percent tariff on Canadian imports and declaring that the US-Canada special relationship “is dead.”
It was revived with Jimmy Carter’s amnesty for draft dodgers. Today the two countries share one of the longest friendliest borders in the world. Along with Mexico they have a free trade agreement. Both countries are founding members of NATO and the G7.
Trump is business first, foremost and only. His quip is based on Canada’s economic dependence on its giant southern neighbor. Eighty percent of its exports are to America. But the relationship is not entirely one-way. $87 billion of the exports are Canadian oil and gas for American industry and Detroit’s motor industry would grind to a halt without Canadian automotive parts.
There is also the fact that Canada literally has America’s back. The nuclear line of attack from Russia and China is across the North Pole and the heavily protected Canadian Arctic. Best be nice, Mr. Trump.
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Tom Arms is foreign editor of Liberal Democrat Voice and the author of “The Encyclopedia of the Cold War” and “America Made in Britain.”
